Latest Research

Expect more downside for Financials, based on the sector’s percentage of S&P 500 market cap, as well as percentage of earnings. An S&P Financial sector weight of 15% may mark the bottom.

Explanation of Cyclicals Adjustments made to GS Score methodology.

Small caps have trailed the S&P 500 performance by 12-15% since peaking out on a relative basis in the spring of 2006. International small caps have broken down even more decisively on a relative basis.

Our VLT (Very Long Term) Momentum algorithm—alternatively known as the Coppock Curve or “Madness of Crowds”—has just rolled over after forming a rare “double top” formation. Why has the rare VLT Double Top typically proven lethal for the stock market? 

In mid-December, readers were notified via an Interim Memo of our decision to “Play The Bounce” in our managed accounts.

Adding Biotechnology to Select Industries equity portfolio.

2007’s “Good, Bad, and Ugly” of The Leuthold Group research; Leuthold Group Selection (GS) Scores performance review; Weighted index vs. Un-Weighted index performance; and 2007’s “Dreams & Nightmares” portfolios.

The notion of a core rate of inflation (excluding Food and Energy) seems to be fading away—finally!

The venerable Wall Of Worry finally got to the stock market during November, with the major indexes losing their grip virtually right out of the gates.

Earnings are very cyclical by nature, the ebb and flow can cause P/E ratios to move in erratic, less meaningful ways.

May “Play The Bounce” if stocks sell off in December.

With this category now breaking into negative territory, we thought it would be interesting to look back at the other periods when the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category shifted from a positive net reading to negative.

Performance of today’s Financial sector is somewhat tracking the performance during the S&L crisis. Paints bleak picture of what may lie ahead.

In trying to assess how far the Fed may ultimately be forced to cut rates, the price action in short term Treasuries and historical yield relationships may offer some clues.

It is very possible that the early part of 2008 will see a brief period of higher inflation combined with slowing real growth in the U.S. economy.

Quite simply, VLT (which stands for Very Long Term) is a momentum oscillator which works best as a buy signal. Some market technicians have also suggested that VLT Momentum back-tests well as a currency indicator.

Funds offering exposure to non-U.S. equity asset classes have been seeing a fair amount of net inflow this year, while U.S. equity funds have been mostly ignored.

CPI Accelerating In Q4, Economy Creeping Along, But Expect Recession In 2008

With a heavily promotional holiday shopping season underway, we feel compelled to join the fray by looking at the big markdowns in U.S. homebuilding and bank stocks.

Bulls may indeed have Christmas, but fundamentals for bearish case in 2008 are extensive.