Latest Research

In the spirit of historical market research, we thought it would be a good time to revisit which industry groups perform best from bear market lows.

Even though government statistics do not yet indicate a declining quarter of real GDP growth, we believe we are, in fact, in the grip of a recession.

There is political pressure to keep inflation low, minimizing COLA (cost of living adjustments) and Social Security costs. Low inflation also helps to keep interest rates down, which keeps government interest payments as low as possible.

Is it time to buy Technology? This month's “Of Special Interest” examines the sector's merits and finds that while there are signs of improvement, it is too soon to make a big move here.

Market has so far performed pretty much as expected. Major Trend still Negative, but recent improvement is surprising. Bear market could be winding down.

A look at gold priced in dollars versus euros.

The moderate index level price moves from February month-end to March month-end didn’t give any indication of the wild swings that occurred during the days in between.

There’s much more to “the market” than the S&P 500. 

GS Scores in April put Regional Banks in Attractive zone for the first time since October 2006. Valuations show the Regional Banks to be relatively cheap, and Insiders are buying.

Attitudinal category now very positive reflecting excess bearishness which typically comes near market bottoms.

Jim Floyd tries to makes sense of earnings in the current recessionary environment.

At the risk of beating the “we’re in a recession” theme into the ground, we thought some analysis of the hot-off-the-presses March employment data would be worthwhile.

We believe that the CPI understates, not overstates inflation.

The U.S. economy is slowing and probably fell into recession in Q4 2007

Are we asking the wrong question about Consumer Stocks versus Staples? This month’s “Of Special Interest” looks at the relationship between all Consumer groups (both Discretionary and Staples) compared to Commodity related groups.

First, let us be thankful February 29th only occurs every four years. No, we haven’t done a historical performance analysis of past leap year extra days, but you can be certain somebody now has. Whatever, it was a bad end to February 2008.

What follows is my attempt to accentuate the positive; why the current bear market may be maturing and bottoming out sooner than you might think.

When stocks get back to median valuation levels, the odds are the stock market is at or close to its lows.

What follows are my personal observations and opinions. I am an anti-inflation fiscal conservative and I know some would add “curmudgeon” to this description.

The stock market continued to trend lower in February, with most broad indexes posting losses in the 2%-3% range by month end.