Latest Research

Doug Ramsey presents the rationale for our move into the Tech…Big Ten stock group.

In this month’s “Of Special Interest”, Eric Bjorgen analyzes the Coincident Economic Indicators, which the NBER uses to date the beginning and ending points of recessions. Three of the four measures are indicating a recession has already begun.

High Inflation typically is NOT a good environment for stocks, but we don’t believe the CPI will move to the “high” inflation environment.

The statistical tendencies of seasonal patterns just haven’t proved persistent (or logical) enough for us to build them into our Major Trend Index. Can it be a bear market if the major indices do not decline more than 20%? Putting a nail in the coffin of the decoupling theorists.

The stock market continued to move higher in May, with small and mid cap stocks outperforming the majority of large cap indices.

Deactivating Industrial Metals after holding period of almost six years and a 400%+ gain.

Initiating a new portfolio group holding in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing group.

Returning to REITs as an alternative to fixed income. Adding new 4% holding in both the Core and Asset Allocation Portfolios, with the focus exclusively on Residential and Health Care REITs. Weighted average yield of the new holding is about 5.7%. 

Based on NIPA Corporate Profits, the S&P 500 is now relatively cheap based on the prior 1956 to date history.

Prospects for increase to capital gains tax caused us to examine the historical impact such changes have on stock market performance, 1917 to date.  The record is not very encouraging.

With or without Financials, earnings momentum has been gradually deteriorating over the past two years as sales growth slowed and margins have been pressured.

These once elite companies have continued to turn in good earnings growth. The problem had been that the prices had moved far too high. After a few years of declining prices, the valuations are once again looking very compelling.

Major Trend Index improved to Neutral in early April and clinging there now.  Are we seeing a delayed bear market rally?  Examining what could come next.

We’re back on form after last month’s praise of government economists... questioning the value of the GDP Deflator.

Waiting for the curtain to fall on Industrial Metals, we recap the “three acts” and throw in a time-tested contrarian indicator to boot.

It doesn’t seem too long ago when short sellers were vilified for bringing down viable public companies, and the appropriate punishment for short selling was deemed to be a public caning.

Former Morgan Stanley strategist Byron Wein—now at Pequot Capital—publishes an annual list of potential market and economic “surprises” that has become a must read for institutional investors. Along the same lines, Wired magazine listed ten potential threats to what it calls the “Long Boom”. (Warning: This list might make The Leuthold Group look cheerful).

Relief finally came to Wall Street, not in the form of rebate checks or rate cuts, but from the strongest monthly returns since December 2003.

Consumer confidence levels have sunk to five year lows. Could this be a bullish omen for the markets?

Demoralizing long term returns factor into why the investing public has avoided the U.S. stock market during the last several years — even during the bull market.