Latest Research

Last January we noted the appearance of a rare and dangerous technical configuration in the Dow Jones Industrials Average. Some analysts have described this topping pattern as the “Killer Wave”, and did it ever live up to that nickname in 2008.

“Playing The Bounce” strategy produced impressive gains in December, but results are still negative from October introduction.

Once again, this month’s “Of Special Interest” examines deflation but employs a longer time horizon. We also contrast the deflationary environment in Japan versus current U.S. conditions.

Drama, if not direction, have become one of the stock market’s few certainties.

While we can’t be certain that the final figures for the bear market have been booked, it’s worth putting the last 14 months of action into perspective.

New bull markets are front end loaded, with the strongest performance usually coming within the first few months. Study also shows that Small Cap Growth stocks tend to outperform their Large Cap and Value counterparts.

Establishing a new Select Industries Equity Portfolio holding in Education Services. The group was upgraded to Attractive this month, after seeing upgrades in four of seven categories.

The S&P 500 has produced an annual compound return of -0.9% per year for the last ten years (November 1998 through November 2008). This does, however, set the stage for very strong performance going forward.

Non-farm payroll data is poised to register a buy signal for the stock market in early December. Using the year over year rate of change has historically been very effective in identifying recession-related market bottoms.

Using the ratio of MZM relative to total stock market capitalization as a gauge of market liquidity, shows there is a lot of fuel that can be put to work to drive a stock market rally.

The November leg down in stocks was brutal. However, from a technical perspective, the decline was accompanied by the kind of  “positive divergences” that typically appear at major lows.

It may not be a very good “Playing The Bounce” year. Not very many investors or portfolio managers have capital gains to offset.

Mild deflation is nothing to fear: An environment of 0% to 2.4% deflation has proven to be one of the more conducive environments for stocks.

New Select Industries Portfolio equity group positions being established in Systems Software and Small/Micro Cap Biotech.

Based on economic recessions, the sweet spot for stock accumulation seems to be upon us. Valuations also very compelling.

Normalized P/E ratios show stock market to be cheap, but what are “normalized earnings”? We present our methodology and rationale is this month’s “Inside The Stock Market” section. While U.S. stocks are cheap, foreign stock markets look even cheaper.

There was $84 billion coming out of U.S. stock and bond funds in October, the highest net redemptions ever. Second highest month of outflow came in September 2008 (just a month earlier). To us, this looks like a case of capitulation by the public.

Info Tech has demonstrated an ability to lead coming out of bear markets, but still not seeing overall GS Score strength in the sector.

Mark Twain observed more than a century ago that October represented a “peculiarly dangerous” month to speculate in stocks—with the other dangerous times including the remaining 11 months on the calendar.

It may not be a very good “Playing The Bounce” year...