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Profit margins contracting. Assuming margins fall back to median historical levels, this implies a market decline of about 18%.

Following patterns of past burst bubbles, Homebuilders seem poised to rally.

The factor measuring “Big Block Insider (Dollar)” transactions is now rated positive.

“Given the broad declines in the stock market since October 2007, are there any particular industry groups which are beginning to look washed out enough to trigger a buy signal on the VLT work you employ in your Group Selection Scores?”

Optimists have continuously cited low unemployment and the ever resilient U.S. consumer as two “pillars of strength” that will help keep the economy afloat. It has become considerably more difficult to make this case in recent months, as jobs and spending data have weakened to levels associated with recessions.

Conventional wisdom and modern day historical evidence indicate that Value stocks do better in bear markets. But from the 1920s through the 1970s, it was Growth that held up best during bear market declines.

Major Trend Index remains Negative; assume the cyclical bear market prevails, but we increased net equity exposure. Why?

The stock market tends to peak out 6-12 months prior to recession but turns back up prior to the end of a recession.

70% of all the market declines since 1945 (post WWII), bottomed within 10% of the median historical normalized P/E ratio.

A popular buzz word in recent months is “decoupling”, often used in building a case for investing in fast growing foreign stock markets even though the U.S. economy is entering a phase of minimal economic growth or recession.

To the extent that the January Barometer can still be trusted—and in judging its recent track record, it certainly can’t—the losses in January provide a foreboding message for the bulls in early 2008.

An update of our study on past bear markets, showing typical peak to trough declines in the popular market averages and the duration of these declines. Also look at past bear market rallies.

It now appears that the downward bias in inflationary pressures suggested by the CPI data is tame compared to the GDP Deflator. And if this is true, investors may be operating under a false sense of security  that economic growth remains positive (albeit ever so slight).

In looking at Contrarian indicators compared to past major market lows, it seems today’s market has more room on the downside.

We did get a bounce stock rally in January, but it still was a disappointing bounce year overall.

We believe that the CPI understates, not overstates inflation. There is political pressure to keep inflation low.

“Of Special Interest” highlights an upcoming study which will introduce our new Nuclear Power thematic group. The study will present both Domestic and Global alternatives for playing this theme.

Yes, it is thermal pollution time again. It’s the new year when prognosticators and investment pundits produce large volumes of hot air, probably contributing to global warming.

December’s bi-polar price swings had screens flashing brilliant with traditional holiday colors of red and green.

Four trends worth noting and their implications for 2008.