Latest Research

An update of our study on past bear markets, showing typical peak to trough declines in the popular market averages and the duration of these declines. Also look at past bear market rallies.

It now appears that the downward bias in inflationary pressures suggested by the CPI data is tame compared to the GDP Deflator. And if this is true, investors may be operating under a false sense of security  that economic growth remains positive (albeit ever so slight).

In looking at Contrarian indicators compared to past major market lows, it seems today’s market has more room on the downside.

We did get a bounce stock rally in January, but it still was a disappointing bounce year overall.

We believe that the CPI understates, not overstates inflation. There is political pressure to keep inflation low.

“Of Special Interest” highlights an upcoming study which will introduce our new Nuclear Power thematic group. The study will present both Domestic and Global alternatives for playing this theme.

Yes, it is thermal pollution time again. It’s the new year when prognosticators and investment pundits produce large volumes of hot air, probably contributing to global warming.

December’s bi-polar price swings had screens flashing brilliant with traditional holiday colors of red and green.

Four trends worth noting and their implications for 2008.

Expect more downside for Financials, based on the sector’s percentage of S&P 500 market cap, as well as percentage of earnings. An S&P Financial sector weight of 15% may mark the bottom.

Explanation of Cyclicals Adjustments made to GS Score methodology.

Small caps have trailed the S&P 500 performance by 12-15% since peaking out on a relative basis in the spring of 2006. International small caps have broken down even more decisively on a relative basis.

Our VLT (Very Long Term) Momentum algorithm—alternatively known as the Coppock Curve or “Madness of Crowds”—has just rolled over after forming a rare “double top” formation. Why has the rare VLT Double Top typically proven lethal for the stock market? 

In mid-December, readers were notified via an Interim Memo of our decision to “Play The Bounce” in our managed accounts.

Adding Biotechnology to Select Industries equity portfolio.

2007’s “Good, Bad, and Ugly” of The Leuthold Group research; Leuthold Group Selection (GS) Scores performance review; Weighted index vs. Un-Weighted index performance; and 2007’s “Dreams & Nightmares” portfolios.

The notion of a core rate of inflation (excluding Food and Energy) seems to be fading away—finally!

The venerable Wall Of Worry finally got to the stock market during November, with the major indexes losing their grip virtually right out of the gates.

Earnings are very cyclical by nature, the ebb and flow can cause P/E ratios to move in erratic, less meaningful ways.

May “Play The Bounce” if stocks sell off in December.