Green Book March 2026
When Bombs Fly, Don’t Play Hero
When bombs fly, the reward for bravery is rarely paid on schedule. We do not think this is the time to heroically outguess geopolitics or to confuse short-term fortitude with long-term clarity.
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Featured Articles
When Bombs Fly, Don’t Play Hero
When bombs fly, the reward for bravery is rarely paid on schedule. We do not think this is the time to heroically outguess geopolitics or to confuse short-term fortitude with long-term clarity.
AI Shouts Boo!
AI disruption-hysteria sent a stock market scare across waves of industries, with headlines pointing to serious adverse consequences for those firms’ business models. We examine the impact on prominent industry victims to ascertain if stock prices are still distressed and/or the extent to which any have recovered.
Dot-Com Vs. AI: Follow The Money
If the dot-com boom was a tale of public markets eagerly underwriting a technological future and then abruptly withdrawing that support, the AI fervor looks like a story of private capital and corporate balance sheets quietly doing the same—but with far less accountability.
4% Club Check-In
Those complaining about the “Top 1%” controlling all the wealth may finally be getting some satisfaction. Since Halloween, it has been mostly rough sledding for our five-member “4% Club” contingent.
Upside Opportunity In Job Market Inopportunity
Employment growth across sectors is now highly concentrated, indicating the job market is being held up by an ever-dwindling cohort of prosperous industries. Coupled with lackluster growth in 2025, this is cause for concern. Yet, history suggests that relief could be just beyond the horizon.
Valuing Gold, An Elusive Exercise
We tackle the challenge of appraising an investment that doesn’t produce income or cash flow by weighing the price of gold against other familiar investments and concepts that can be quantified—like home prices and inflation.
Goldilocks & The Three Bears
Equity market resilience against war headlines, AI disruption fears, and private credit stress have so far been largely supported by a rare “Goldilocks” macro setup. Enter the three bears: Software stocks, private credit/BDCs, and bitcoin.
Extreme Factor Dispersion
Dispersion remains elevated among factors, with growth selling off and momentum turning in extreme performance spreads. Low-volatility names finally did well after a long stretch of underperformance.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- AI Shouts Boo!
- Dot-Com Vs. AI: Follow The Money
- When Bombs Fly, Don’t Play Hero
- 4% Club Check-In
- Upside Opportunity In Job Market Inopportunity
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
The Leuthold Refresh
Equity Strategies
Quant
Market Internals
- Consistent Improvement
- Valuations: Small Cap vs. Large Cap
- Leadership Dynamics: Growth/Value/Cyclical
- Other Market Undercurrents
Portfolios
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
When Bombs Fly, Don’t Play Hero
When bombs fly, the reward for bravery is rarely paid on schedule. We do not think this is the time to heroically outguess geopolitics or to confuse short-term fortitude with long-term clarity.
AI Shouts Boo!
AI disruption-hysteria sent a stock market scare across waves of industries, with headlines pointing to serious adverse consequences for those firms’ business models. We examine the impact on prominent industry victims to ascertain if stock prices are still distressed and/or the extent to which any have recovered.
Dot-Com Vs. AI: Follow The Money
If the dot-com boom was a tale of public markets eagerly underwriting a technological future and then abruptly withdrawing that support, the AI fervor looks like a story of private capital and corporate balance sheets quietly doing the same—but with far less accountability.
4% Club Check-In
Those complaining about the “Top 1%” controlling all the wealth may finally be getting some satisfaction. Since Halloween, it has been mostly rough sledding for our five-member “4% Club” contingent.
Upside Opportunity In Job Market Inopportunity
Employment growth across sectors is now highly concentrated, indicating the job market is being held up by an ever-dwindling cohort of prosperous industries. Coupled with lackluster growth in 2025, this is cause for concern. Yet, history suggests that relief could be just beyond the horizon.
Valuing Gold, An Elusive Exercise
We tackle the challenge of appraising an investment that doesn’t produce income or cash flow by weighing the price of gold against other familiar investments and concepts that can be quantified—like home prices and inflation.
Goldilocks & The Three Bears
Equity market resilience against war headlines, AI disruption fears, and private credit stress have so far been largely supported by a rare “Goldilocks” macro setup. Enter the three bears: Software stocks, private credit/BDCs, and bitcoin.
Extreme Factor Dispersion
Dispersion remains elevated among factors, with growth selling off and momentum turning in extreme performance spreads. Low-volatility names finally did well after a long stretch of underperformance.
Stock Market
- AI Shouts Boo!
- Dot-Com Vs. AI: Follow The Money
- When Bombs Fly, Don’t Play Hero
- 4% Club Check-In
- Upside Opportunity In Job Market Inopportunity
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
The Leuthold Refresh
Equity Strategies
Quant
Market Internals
- Consistent Improvement
- Valuations: Small Cap vs. Large Cap
- Leadership Dynamics: Growth/Value/Cyclical
- Other Market Undercurrents