Green Book May 2026
Streak Smarts
April market action delivered two rare events: a 13-day winning streak in the NASDAQ and a +12% month in the S&P 500 (trough to peak). Both have historically pointed toward strong forward returns. And yet they could not be more different in how they get there.
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Featured Articles
Reality Check
The greatest investment risk from the trillions of dollars betting on AI is that overbuilding will lead to excess capacity with competition driving pricing toward marginal costs. Many players are tossing their hats into the ring, but new-era spending booms often end with just a few dominant firms.
Private Credit Contagion Watch—Uncomfortably Numb
We compiled a list of indicators to watch for potential private-credit contagion, sorted into three tiers. The first tier, with the most direct private credit exposure and sensitivity to liquidity risk, is flashing a red flag; whereas the other two are graded as “cautionary” to “okay”—early signs of contagion, but not yet serious.
AI’s Profit Pushmi-Pulyu
Capital spending booms are often remembered as periods of IT transformation and optimism. Firms race to expand productive capacity, ushering in a new era of efficiency and growth. The current AI wave fits that description, but there is one underappreciated aspect of the frenzy: The asymmetric impact the capex surge will have on corporate profits today, versus several years from now.
The NewBird Of Happiness
In a strategic pivot, Allbirds, Inc. withdrew from the footwear trade to redeploy assets into an AI data center rental business. Its stock jumped 582% within three days. The notion of a “582% blip” prompted us to further explore the phenomenon of lottery stocks and the behavioral-finance research into investors’ appetite for lottery-like payoffs.
Recession Dashboard Update—Risk Still Low
Market-based measures are favorable, and the war-driven confidence shock has partially reversed. Despite recent volatility, the employment picture improved a bit, although full-time employment is a persistent reminder that labor market health remains fragile.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- Private Credit Contagion Watch—Uncomfortably Numb
- Recession Dashboard Update—Risk Still Low
- Risk Aversion Index: Stayed On “Higher-Risk” Signal
The Leuthold Refresh
Equity Strategies
Market Internals
- Q1 Starts With Slight Dip
- Valuations: Small Cap Vs. Large Cap
- Growth vs. Value
- Other Market Undercurrents
Portfolios
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Reality Check
The greatest investment risk from the trillions of dollars betting on AI is that overbuilding will lead to excess capacity with competition driving pricing toward marginal costs. Many players are tossing their hats into the ring, but new-era spending booms often end with just a few dominant firms.
Private Credit Contagion Watch—Uncomfortably Numb
We compiled a list of indicators to watch for potential private-credit contagion, sorted into three tiers. The first tier, with the most direct private credit exposure and sensitivity to liquidity risk, is flashing a red flag; whereas the other two are graded as “cautionary” to “okay”—early signs of contagion, but not yet serious.
AI’s Profit Pushmi-Pulyu
Capital spending booms are often remembered as periods of IT transformation and optimism. Firms race to expand productive capacity, ushering in a new era of efficiency and growth. The current AI wave fits that description, but there is one underappreciated aspect of the frenzy: The asymmetric impact the capex surge will have on corporate profits today, versus several years from now.
The NewBird Of Happiness
In a strategic pivot, Allbirds, Inc. withdrew from the footwear trade to redeploy assets into an AI data center rental business. Its stock jumped 582% within three days. The notion of a “582% blip” prompted us to further explore the phenomenon of lottery stocks and the behavioral-finance research into investors’ appetite for lottery-like payoffs.
Recession Dashboard Update—Risk Still Low
Market-based measures are favorable, and the war-driven confidence shock has partially reversed. Despite recent volatility, the employment picture improved a bit, although full-time employment is a persistent reminder that labor market health remains fragile.
Stock Market
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- Private Credit Contagion Watch—Uncomfortably Numb
- Recession Dashboard Update—Risk Still Low
- Risk Aversion Index: Stayed On “Higher-Risk” Signal
The Leuthold Refresh
Equity Strategies
Market Internals
- Q1 Starts With Slight Dip
- Valuations: Small Cap Vs. Large Cap
- Growth vs. Value
- Other Market Undercurrents