Latest Research

The Leuthold Group maintains three short interest models. All three issued timely BUY signals on the market near the summer 2006 lows, but none of these three models provided any hint of the market weakness that recently unfolded in July and August. 

The yield curve has moved away from inverted status, leading many to conclude the possibility of recession has been avoided. However, a look at past recessions reveals that a reversal of an inversion typically occurs prior to the economic decline– ranging from 6 months to over a year in advance.

Following the market rout of recent weeks, we imagine there are many clients sharing our nervous view of the stock market. For those clients, especially those managing long-only equity strategies, we thought it may be helpful to highlight some defensive groups that are scoring well in our group work.

The YTD numbers further advance the notion that Main Street wants little new exposure to the U.S. stock market.

This month, we purchased Mining Equipment, a new thematic group that we have been monitoring internally for most of 2007.

At a time when our Group Selection Scores have been deteriorating among the various Pharmaceutical groups tracked, our numbers for the Generic Pharma group have improved to the point where the group is now rated Attractive.

Bond market targets were increased in July, based on rising global rates, strong global economy and expected inflation acceleration.

This month’s “Of Special Interest” focuses on our new global equities investment research product which was derived from our quantitative Group Selection (GS) Score framework for assessing domestic equity industry groups.

Steve presents his mid year outlook for “Alternative Investments”

At a time when the public remains largely sidelined, corporations, private equity, and professional investors continue to take the U.S. stock market averages higher.

What little discussion of a possible U.S. recession there had been in the first half of the year has dried up with an apparent pick up in the economy. “Inside The Stock Market” this month presents a 2008 Recession Watch, identifying some indicators which may prove useful in assessing the possibly of a coming recession.

Yes, the S&P 500 is near all time highs, but what if the index was denominated in other currencies? Denominated in euros, the S&P 500 is still 30% below its March 2000 high.

This global bull market in stocks has been unusual in that it’s been accompanied by bull markets in things that often exhibit little correlation or even negative correlation to equities.

Info Tech turned in strong performance in a weak month for the market. Our work on Tech groups is improving and we are seeing some encouraging signs.  Still not enough to turn us bullish– yet.

Performance chasing Main Street investors have been channeling their assets elsewhere, despite the respectable returns to be found within their own domestic equity market.

Expect economic expansion to pick up a bit after weak first quarter, but a 2008 recession is a possibility. 

Share repurchases have been a major driver in the extension of the bull market, but this month’s “Of Special Interest” outlines several factors which are likely to contribute to a deceleration in corporate repurchase activity over the next several quarters.

2007 half time report. Revisiting our original 2007 projections with some current modifications. Outlook for stock market, interest rates, inflation, profits, economy, the deficits, the U.S. dollar and gold.

Steve Leuthold revisits the 1987 stock market, and includes some excerpts of his commentary in the Green Book from the months leading up to the October crash. There are some stunning similarities to today’s market. Also, commentary on the current China stock market. Some have compared it to Japan in the late 1980s, but there are distinct differences.

It is getting increasingly clear that current stock market gains are being built upon the backs of corporate and private equity investors.