Latest Research

This month’s “Of Special Interest” focuses on our new global equities investment research product which was derived from our quantitative Group Selection (GS) Score framework for assessing domestic equity industry groups.

Steve presents his mid year outlook for “Alternative Investments”

At a time when the public remains largely sidelined, corporations, private equity, and professional investors continue to take the U.S. stock market averages higher.

What little discussion of a possible U.S. recession there had been in the first half of the year has dried up with an apparent pick up in the economy. “Inside The Stock Market” this month presents a 2008 Recession Watch, identifying some indicators which may prove useful in assessing the possibly of a coming recession.

Yes, the S&P 500 is near all time highs, but what if the index was denominated in other currencies? Denominated in euros, the S&P 500 is still 30% below its March 2000 high.

This global bull market in stocks has been unusual in that it’s been accompanied by bull markets in things that often exhibit little correlation or even negative correlation to equities.

Info Tech turned in strong performance in a weak month for the market. Our work on Tech groups is improving and we are seeing some encouraging signs.  Still not enough to turn us bullish– yet.

Performance chasing Main Street investors have been channeling their assets elsewhere, despite the respectable returns to be found within their own domestic equity market.

Expect economic expansion to pick up a bit after weak first quarter, but a 2008 recession is a possibility. 

Share repurchases have been a major driver in the extension of the bull market, but this month’s “Of Special Interest” outlines several factors which are likely to contribute to a deceleration in corporate repurchase activity over the next several quarters.

2007 half time report. Revisiting our original 2007 projections with some current modifications. Outlook for stock market, interest rates, inflation, profits, economy, the deficits, the U.S. dollar and gold.

Steve Leuthold revisits the 1987 stock market, and includes some excerpts of his commentary in the Green Book from the months leading up to the October crash. There are some stunning similarities to today’s market. Also, commentary on the current China stock market. Some have compared it to Japan in the late 1980s, but there are distinct differences.

It is getting increasingly clear that current stock market gains are being built upon the backs of corporate and private equity investors.

After one of the most active months ever for private equity offers, we revisit our LBO screen in “Inside the Stock Market” section. This screen has thus far outperformed the S&P 500 since we introduced it in January of 2006.

The Index of Leading Economic Indicators has a proven track record of indicating when a recession may be near. Although this index has been trending sideways for quite some time, it has not yet rolled over.

Valuations set the stage for better performance out of growth.  But it is important to note that there’s precedent for the value cycle—seemingly already overextended in time and price—to get much more extended. 

Our Attitudinal analysis—or investor sentiment—normally deteriorates badly leading into a major market top, but has held up surprisingly well in the face of the last several weeks’ almost relentless, daily upside action. 

This is the first time that combined net demand for open-end funds and ETFs has been negative since last December, and is quite interesting, even unusual, considering the stock market continued to post new highs during the most recent month.

Oil & Gas Drilling is tied for fifth in our Group Selection Scores this month and was purchased for the equity portfolio.

Expect economic expansion to pick up a bit after weak first quarter, but a 2008 recession is a possibility.