Latest Research

The surprising restraint in investor enthusiasm has been a key pillar behind our bullish case for the stock market.

The key to the 2006 Supply/Demand factors has been the huge level of Cash Acquisitions this year. Current levels smash prior 2005 record level. This bullish trend could continue to support a rising stock market.

Third quarter earnings show a widening gap between Small Cap earnings growth and Large Cap earnings growth. In the past two recessions, the gap in earnings growth between these two market cap tiers also widened with Small Cap earnings fading.

Recent market action appears to be indicating that cyclical forces have, for the time being, put Japan’s stock market recovery on hold.

Introducing “Green Wave”…A New Leuthold Thematic Group which focuses on companies offering products, services, and technologies aimed at providing a cleaner environment.

Prior to 1992, the returns generated by this exercise were in the 15% to 20% range before being closed out in the subsequent year. 2006-2007 performance is so far on track to match or exceed this range.

For open end equity funds, the last seven months have seen nearly $28 billion of net redemptions despite the fact that the S&P 500 has risen almost 7%.

We initiated a new position in the Tobacco group, which is currently exhibiting strength across all categories of the GS Scores

Bond yields continue to fall as economic reports have tended to be on the weak side. Massive global liquidity and the search for yield have also helped to push yields lower. We have been way off the mark with our predictions for higher rates.

This month’s “Of Special Interest” study presents a handful of factors that explain why life for active managers has been much more difficult in 2006.

Election should be a non-event for stock market. No matter which party gains control of House or Senate, we expect to see two more years of gridlock. Also, still bullish on Industrial Metals and the unusual behavior of U.S. Equity Fund Flows.

The stock market’s turbocharged advance continued into October, putting YTD performance for the majority of broad market indexes into the double-digits.

Many stocks had outperformed in October and were retained in the Select Industries Portfolio, but there were enough sales to build new holding in Reinsurance.

Prior to 1992, the returns generated by this exercise were in the 15% to 20% range before being closed out in the subsequent year. 2006-2007 Performance is so far on track to match or exceed this range.

Sentiment measures still show pessimism among investors. Doug Ramsey looks at the current sentiment gauges for the market and also examines the current sentiment readings for 24 broad industries groups.

The last time there were six consecutive months of net outflow was over seventeen years ago, in 1989, when a protracted period of monthly net outflow followed the 1987 stock market crash.

Our call for a bond market correction did not pan out in October, but yields did back up in early November as weak productivity and a surprisingly low unemployment rate were released.

Is market rallying in anticipation of conflict resolution in Iraq? Bush will be under increasing pressure to resolve things before the 2008 Presidential election. We look at the Korean conflict and Vietnam war for clues about how this possible resolution in Iraq may play out in stock market.

Despite the stronger stock market, there continues to be a healthy degree of bearish sentiment prevalent in today’s market.

Perhaps if you were living in some obscure quarter of the Amazon jungle for the last month, you may not have heard the news that the Dow Jones Industrials Average was approaching and finally achieved a new all-time high in late-September and early October.