Latest Research

On a long term basis, we continue to be concerned about the sustainability of the current economic expansion, and we expect a significant slowdown by mid 2007.

Investors have soured on Industrial Metals equities, likely based on the belief that the prices of the underlying physical metals have stopped going up.

Group rotation has made it tough for managers to outperform. There has been a lack of sustainable leadership.

Some clients have been asking if private equity firms are responsible for this record level activity. The truthful answer is, well....yes and no.

While we currently favor little to no allocation to Consumer stocks, we realize that many clients must maintain a substantial weight in the Consumer Discretionary sector. For those clients, we are proposing a new thematic stock market group this month: The Strapped Consumer.

For the traditional equity funds, this was the fifth straight month of net redemptions.

Bond market remains ahead of itself and is vulnerable to correction.

“Playing the Bounce” screening strategy details and 2006 initial “bounce” stock qualifiers.

S&P 500 is now within striking distance of hitting new cyclical highs.

Six of eight recessions since 1957 saw signals registered by the Transportation Divergence monitor. Recent divergence may be warning of an impending economic contraction.

So why do we still hold a position in Airlines? Short answer is: “Opinions are for show,but the numbers are for dough.”   GS Score still rates group high in Attractive zone.

Market breadth improving, but still relatively weak. Narrowing breadth can, however, persist for a long time. There was a two year period of diverging breadth in 1998 to 1999, prior to the last bear market.

We have been taking the opportunity each month to highlight a portion of our groups’ insider buying and selling scores. This month, we are presenting the groups with the best insider scores.

While the figures do not suggest much growth in demand for domestic equity funds since last year, they do indicate that ETFs are gaining market share.

Proceeds from the sales of the Rails were used to establish a new 8.1% position in “Deep Value” stocks.

Bond market seems to be anticipating three key developments: Fed’s stance could switch from tightening to easing, the economy is slowing significantly, and inflation is licked.

“Of Special Interest” section examines the likely demise of consumer spending power. Taking a lead from the GS Scores and other economic data, we believe that a significant underweight in areas that are particularly sensitive to consumer spending is a prudent strategy for now.

Even before Major Trend Index improved to Neutral, Leuthold was getting more bullish. Also, Is the Sun Rising or is it Setting on Japan?

Everybody sure hates the Homebuilders. However, contrarians should take note of this month’s analysis of earnings prospects, insider selling/buying, and the outlook for future housing starts. Now is not the time to be bottom fishing here. Nor is it time to be buying oil stocks.

In July, weakness early in the month later transitioned into a comeback rally of sorts for the major stock market indexes.