Latest Research

Eric Bjorgen searches for something beyond The Great Depression or 1990’s Japan. See what he found in this month’s Of Special Interest.

Last month, using Ben Graham's model, we found the U.S. market to be undervalued for the first time in about 50 years. Unfortunately, the values have become even more compelling over  the past five weeks.

The recent dismal stock market sell off, combined with flight to safety of U.S. Treasuries, has vaulted bond returns well above their historical norms while stock returns are well below their historical norms.

Five groups we think are poised to benefit form the stimulus legislation.

The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index: a group we didn’t recognize as a bubble two years ago (and we suspect we’re not the only ones), but one that meets the minimum requirement for “membership” by declining at least 70% from its high.

Identifying and comparing important characteristics of the broad sectors of the S&P 500.

A brief description of the differences among these Chinese market segments and comparisons of major funds offering exposure to the Chinese stock market. 

Uncertainties are running high, and the stock market continues its struggle with a complex array of cross currents.

With stock market “fundamentals” seemingly worse than at any time since World War II, we revisit the methods of the founding father of fundamental security analysis.

· The U.S. is leading the foreign markets, but for how long?

While there is plenty to worry about, some important technical trends still suggest that November 20, 2008 stands a good chance of being the final low of this bear market.

The new low in the Dow Jones Transports is a bullish portent, but only if the Dow Jones Industrials can hold above their November low.

In January we expanded our Global Group universe from 67 to 92 groups. We believe these modifications enhance our ability to identify and track important leadership trends, and allow us to target portfolio exposures with greater accuracy.

A last look at a dismal year for Playing the Bounce.

This month’s Of Special Interest focuses on the dismal outlook for earnings. But there is hope, as they should be approaching trough levels soon. After all, with easier comps on the horizon, things can’t get much worse, can they?

2008 is over. We expect 2009 to be better since worst-case scenarios now seem less likely to play out.

Establishing new Select Industries equity portfolio holding in Airlines.

“January Effect” has lost some of its luster in recent years, but historically it has produced very strong returns following big down years.

Still a mountain of cash available (MZM data), which could find its way into the stock market. Don’t confuse scarcity of buyers with scarcity of liquidity.

Even with perfect hindsight, an investor who purchased the 20 best performing groups in 2008 would have generated a 13% loss for the year. The 20 worst performing groups had an average loss of 62.5%.