Latest Research

In late October, the Select Industries Portfolio added new positions in Managed Health Care (5.2% of assets).

After already rallying substantially from the March lows, it will be tougher for small caps to continue their outperformance.

Lots of pundits calling for a double dip recession. In this month’s “Inside The Stock Market” Doug Ramsey questions their rationale and uses history as a guide to say that we don’t think so.

Following a strong September, October may be a little weaker. However, readers should use any October scare to buy equities in anticipation of strong end to 2009.

Secular versus Cyclical markets. It shouldn’t really matter. Investors can lose a lot waiting to be right. The Key is to focus on the cyclical movements within a secular bull or bear market.

High Yield bonds are still rated Attractive, but the spreads have narrowed significantly.

Most stocks, especially low quality stocks, have already bounced so there will be no Playing The Bounce strategy this year.

As of the end of Q1, the 20 year total return ACR differential between the S&P 500 and Ten Year Treasuries was negative, and at its lowest reading in 60 years.

As one of the oldest investment philosophies, value investing has certainly stood the test of time. The recent market meltdown is no exception.

Continuing our series of introductions of new members of the Leuthold team, this month we present our token New Yorker and bottom up Clean Tech stock picker David Kurzman.

This month’s “Of Special Interest” section looks at six trends from the Supply/Demand front. Key to several of these trends is that investors chase performance: still seeing big inflows into bond funds, with big outflows from retail money market funds.

Doug Ramsey demonstrates that new bull markets can be expected to correct by 10% or more at some point — which may be why so many pundants are looking for a correction now. Past history shows that based on duration it would be early in the current bull market for a correction at this time, but based on  magnitude, the timing would be about right.

Market vacuum occurred during the 4 weeks following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, when the S&P 500 dove from 1250 to 900. This occurred during the recession, but it has been the Retailers that are among the few groups that have closed that gap.

Given the very long-term ebb and flow of market valuations, it is hard to believe that—with old valuation norms finally and decisively violated to the downside—the market will spring back to anything like the valuations seen in the middle of this decade.

Bubble groups rarely return as market leaders until after experiencing a prolonged trading range pattern. Technology currently appears to have paid its dues and could develop into the next market leader.

New group purchase of Integrated Telecom stocks.

Most quantitative portfolio managers employ some variation of the momentum strategy, and most have had a hard time with this particular strategy since the end of 2007.

Our first introduction is of Jun Zhu, who broke the mold by not being another white Midwestern guy.

Jim Floyd examines the revenue growth of the ten broad sectors in this month’s “Of Special Interest”.

Lots of people spinning economic and market statistics to cast doubt on the recovery and stock market rally. Doug Ramsey goes point by point to make an honest assessment about the current conditions. Things do actually look pretty good right now!