Latest Research

Substantial turnover in Select Industries Portfolio created room for several new industry group positions to be established.

One of the great contrary trades in recent memory may well have been the Consumer Discretionary stocks during the last recession and early in the recovery. The consumer had been written off, but these stocks have been the clear market leader. It looks, however, like the move may be running out of steam.

Analysts typically focus on demand for products and rarely look at the supply side. Consumer Discretionary companies were rewarded for their pessimistic positioning with better pricing and higher margins. 

Global Industries equity portfolio has little to no exposure to the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain) as our Global Group Selection Scores have not led us to industries that have many component stocks domiciled in those countries.  However, if this work leads us to groups with heavier exposure to the PIIGS, we’ll buy them without blinking.

When you are all doing the same thing at the same time, it’s usually a good time to question if the investment makes sense anymore.

Stock market valuations no longer cheap, but they are also not yet truly expensive. Eric Bjorgen isolates several valuation measures to show just where they rank historically

Helping propel the stock market recovery has been a build-up of excess liquidity. This has now generally been put to use, and can no longer be counted on as a market driver.

Focus of global investing has shifted from sector and is now centered on the regional effect.

Adding new Select Industries equity portfolio holding in thematic group called Hispanic Boom, a play on expanding Hispanic population and their increased buying power. This growing demographic will maintain its brand loyalty, and our Hispanic Boom theme has identified several beneficiaries.

One of the great contrary trades in recent memory may well have been the Consumer Discretionary stocks during the last recession and early in the recovery. The consumer had been written off, but these stocks have been the clear market leader. It looks, however, like the move may be running out of steam.

A mountain of new debt, a balloon of short term borrowing due near term, and the likelihood of higher interest rates are big hurdles. Moody’s says U.S. debt could test its AAA rating.

It is sobering to consider that an historic, 13-month market stampede (one now exceeding 75%) has done nothing more than restore the market to levels first seen twelve years ago.

Doug Ramsey utilizes several bear market arguments to build a bullish case. Rising Interest Rates, Overbought Market, Low Volatility, and Low Trading Volumes, can all be looked upon in a BULLISH light.

This month Chung Wang examines historical performance of companies that increase or initiate dividends, as well as companies that are buying back stock. These stocks tend to significantly outperform.

Select Industries Equity portfolio is taking a nearly 10% position in Tech...Big Ten (the ten biggest tech stocks). This is the only group from the Tech sector now rated Attractive according to the GS Scores.

At times it is indeed possible to have interest rates rise and stocks also move higher, and it is also possible to have rates decline and stocks fall.

A mountain of new debt, a balloon of short term borrowing due near term, and the likelihood of higher interest rates are big hurdles. Moody’s says U.S. debt could test its AAA rating.

This month’s “Of Special Interest” examines the characteristics of past bull market recoveries. Using a variety of historical comparisons, the current recovery is put into some perspective. The majority of these comparisons seem to indicate the current recovery still has a ways to go.

This month’s “Of Special Interest” takes a look at Q4 profit margins across the 10 broad economic sectors. Best looking is Information Technology, while Consumer groups have also seen impressive gains by becoming lean and mean.

Global bull market is now one year old. U.S. stocks are probably in fair value territory, but should move to moderately overvalued territory as both the economy and investor sentiment improve.