Latest Research

There are four key decisions a company’s management has to make: Dividend Policy, External Financing, Capital Expenditure (Capex), and Research & Development (R&D).  We studied how the market rewards each of these management decisions.

With new technology and products rolling out, electronic gadgets may be able to capture a growing share of the rebound in total consumer discretionary spending.

The “easy money”—at least psychologically— may still be ahead for some. Money continues to move out of U.S. equity mutual funds, and there is still skepticism about the stock market.

There is a potential valuation ceiling confronting U.S. stocks. 2002 S&P valuation lows may be the point that this cyclical bull market tops out.

Get out in front of the lemmings. We expect to ultimately see bond funds reverse now that performance has been lagging the stock market. But where will the money go? Our best guess is that it flows to Emerging Country Equities….once again chasing strong performance.

What will be one of the key performance drivers for  the second half of the bull market? The short answer is the same catalyst that brought the stock market down during the latter half of the last bear market: Liquidity.

Return On Equity (ROE) has been performing well as a quality factor on a global basis over the last six to twelve months.

And now our final new analyst introduction (for the time being) of Chun Wang.

There’s an overwhelming consensus that the U.S. economy has slipped into a long-term phase of declining growth in real GDP and chronically higher unemployment. Here’s a dissenting opinion from a client, along with Steve Leuthold’s response.

In late October, the Select Industries Portfolio added new positions in Industrial Conglomerates (6.6% of equity assets).

In late October, the Select Industries Portfolio added new positions in Computer & Electronics Retail (4.1% of assets).

In late October, the Select Industries Portfolio added new positions in Managed Health Care (5.2% of assets).

After already rallying substantially from the March lows, it will be tougher for small caps to continue their outperformance.

Lots of pundits calling for a double dip recession. In this month’s “Inside The Stock Market” Doug Ramsey questions their rationale and uses history as a guide to say that we don’t think so.

Following a strong September, October may be a little weaker. However, readers should use any October scare to buy equities in anticipation of strong end to 2009.

Secular versus Cyclical markets. It shouldn’t really matter. Investors can lose a lot waiting to be right. The Key is to focus on the cyclical movements within a secular bull or bear market.

High Yield bonds are still rated Attractive, but the spreads have narrowed significantly.

Most stocks, especially low quality stocks, have already bounced so there will be no Playing The Bounce strategy this year.

As of the end of Q1, the 20 year total return ACR differential between the S&P 500 and Ten Year Treasuries was negative, and at its lowest reading in 60 years.

As one of the oldest investment philosophies, value investing has certainly stood the test of time. The recent market meltdown is no exception.