Latest Research

The relationship between equity mutual fund cash flow and performance of the equity markets can be reduced to two basic “golden rules” of interpretation.

Last issue, we presented an introduction to our thoughts on the problems being faced by public pensions. The following is a look at some initial action by states.

During July, there were no factors that added value at a statistically significant level.

Our Group Selection work continues to struggle, but there seems to be a light at the end of the tunnel.

The kneejerk reaction to worries about excessive sovereign debt has been to bail out of the European sovereign debt and pile into U.S. sovereign debt.

Jim Floyd presents three screens looking for high (and healthy) dividend paying stocks. With bond yields so low, we believe there is opportunity in these types of stocks.

Major Trend Index has big decline in early July, bringing ratio all the way down to negative ground.

A market decline much beyond 20% could be labeled a “non-economic” bear market. Outstanding feature of past “non-economic” bear markets has been their brevity.

Economic indicators are hypersensitive to even small changes in the data, and investors are hypersensitive to the indicators themselves.

Taxes are slated to go up as Bush tax cuts expire. History shows that selling increases in anticipation of higher capital gains taxes. Stock performance also does better in anticipation of lower tax environments than higher.

Matt Paschke discusses how public pension funds are approaching huge hurdles as state and municipal governments have promised more than they are able to provide.

Momentum cannot sustain itself, as multiple trends reversed over last two months. Profitability focus has returned to the marketplace as risk aversion grows.

We expect risk appetites to remain low and investors to continue to reward conservative stock characteristics over the next 3-6 months.

A mountain of new debt, a balloon of short term borrowing due near term, and the likelihood of higher interest rates are big hurdles.

In this month’s “Of Special Interest”, David Kurzman, manager of the “Leuthold Global Clean Technology” mutual fund provides his take on whether the Gulf oil spill will present any real opportunities for alternative energy stocks.

Doug Ramsey looks at the history of “severe” market corrections (declines of 12% to 18%), and contrasts that with true bear markets.

Despite our still (cautiously) bullish outlook, historical P/E levels which once provided support to the stock market are expected to now offer resistance as the market moves higher.

Here Comes The Sun! Read about Dave Kurzman’s outlook for the solar energy industry.

We examine the relative importance of country effect vs. sector effect within four regions: Europe, Eastern Europe/Middle East/Africa, Asia Pacific ex-Japan ex-China, and Americas ex-U.S.

A mountain of new debt, a balloon of short term borrowing due near term, and the likelihood of higher interest rates are big hurdles. Moody’s says U.S. debt could test its AAA rating.