Latest Research

Current market recovery continues to track the post 1974 bear market recovery quite closely.

Quantitative factor performance throws yet another curve ball. Momentum works with Growth and Profitability for first time this year. 

New data series confirms unprecedented correlations in equity markets.

Given the discussion during August of a weakening economy and a potential double dip, Chun Wang looks at which of our quantitative factors do best during a slowdown.

Bond bubble continues to inflate, much like money pouring into tech stocks at the height of the internet bubble.

Prompted by a client request, Eric Bjorgen examines the impact of mid-term elections on the stock market.

Beware summer doldrums, August has a knack of sometimes being a crazy month. Market continues to be viewed as being in a severe correction mode, rather than a full fledged bear market.

MSCI Index very undervalued, as the recovery off the March 2009 lows has left valuations still near prior bear market lows. Relative to foreign markets, the U.S. looks expensive. This is why we continue to maintain a healthy exposure to foreign stocks…especially emerging markets.

Per our work, sectors like Consumer Discretionary and Technology provide a better way to capitalize on the global recovery now underway.

It’s easy to see why equity investors are so down when looking at updates of the long term stock market performance. It’s even more depressing when long term equity returns are compared to bond returns.

Don’t fear deflation. Leuthold historical studies show mild deflation can actually be a good environment for the stock market.

The relationship between equity mutual fund cash flow and performance of the equity markets can be reduced to two basic “golden rules” of interpretation.

Last issue, we presented an introduction to our thoughts on the problems being faced by public pensions. The following is a look at some initial action by states.

During July, there were no factors that added value at a statistically significant level.

Our Group Selection work continues to struggle, but there seems to be a light at the end of the tunnel.

The kneejerk reaction to worries about excessive sovereign debt has been to bail out of the European sovereign debt and pile into U.S. sovereign debt.

Jim Floyd presents three screens looking for high (and healthy) dividend paying stocks. With bond yields so low, we believe there is opportunity in these types of stocks.

Major Trend Index has big decline in early July, bringing ratio all the way down to negative ground.

A market decline much beyond 20% could be labeled a “non-economic” bear market. Outstanding feature of past “non-economic” bear markets has been their brevity.

Economic indicators are hypersensitive to even small changes in the data, and investors are hypersensitive to the indicators themselves.