Latest Research

In mid-May, we re-initiated a short position across all three tactical funds in U.S. Treasury bonds.

Mutual fund outflow played significant role in Major Trend deterioration. There have been about 6 1/2 months where the four week average has shown net inflow to U.S. equity funds, but outflow is now accelerating as three of last four weeks have seen net outflow.

Within the Select Industries portfolio, a new holding was established in the Pharmaceuticals group, boosting Health Care exposure in this equity portfolio to an overweight 34% (versus S&P 500 weight of 12%).

Periods of accelerating inflation generally lead to lagging stock market performance.

Graphical representation of the difficulty since the March 2009 market bottom. Not many factors have been effective.

More than one-half of the U.S. government’s additional $9 trillion in debt expected over the next ten years is projected to be interest. This is a frightening proposition.

Risk Aversion Index accelerated in May, making it prudent to favor defensive assets near term. Expect small and gradual increase in long term interest rates.

This month’s “Of Special Interest” takes a stab at debunking the “Sell In May And Go Away” anomaly. Instead, we have come to respect this annual strategy.

Don’t expect a summer swoon, but stocks may make little progress until fall. Most of our bull market targets discussed in 2009—early 2010 have been achieved with the exception of a return to median bull market peaks based on normalized earnings (only 1.5% away).

Market in gear, with almost all market indices hitting new highs in tandem. Would be unusual for a market correction with this type of uniformity.

U.S. capacity utilization rate is more than four percentage points below the magic 82% threshold, yet factory pricing pressures are already through the roof.

Select Industries portfolio has added new equity group holdings in Department Stores, boosting sector exposure in Consumer Discretionary.

Select Industries portfolio has added new equity group holdings in Aluminum, initiating sector exposure in Materials.

Dave Kurzman, Leuthold Clean Tech guru, outlines the solar companies which are in the best and worst positions for potential mergers or acquisitions.

Jun Zhu examines the use of Emerging Market Mutual Fund Flow as a sentiment indicator. It works best as a buy signal, but is not bad as a sell signal. Currently neither on a buy or sell.

Very little to show for a month of solid market performance. Breaking the market down by capitalization yields some interesting results.

Are the Dow Industrials benefiting from trivial weighting? Slicing our Leuthold 3000 universe into market cap deciles shows different performance results than commonly followed market indices.

An orderly decline of the dollar is not necessarily a big concern. On the other hand, a sudden collapse of the dollar, in conjunction with spiking U.S. interest rates, would be a terrible thing. So far this has not been the case.

Steps are falling into place for the U.S. market to climb another 15-20% into 2012.

VLT has turned up for most market indices. Even though it is still above the zero line, history shows that this signals an extension of the bull market.