Latest Research

Market in gear, with almost all market indices hitting new highs in tandem. Would be unusual for a market correction with this type of uniformity.

U.S. capacity utilization rate is more than four percentage points below the magic 82% threshold, yet factory pricing pressures are already through the roof.

Select Industries portfolio has added new equity group holdings in Department Stores, boosting sector exposure in Consumer Discretionary.

Select Industries portfolio has added new equity group holdings in Aluminum, initiating sector exposure in Materials.

Dave Kurzman, Leuthold Clean Tech guru, outlines the solar companies which are in the best and worst positions for potential mergers or acquisitions.

Jun Zhu examines the use of Emerging Market Mutual Fund Flow as a sentiment indicator. It works best as a buy signal, but is not bad as a sell signal. Currently neither on a buy or sell.

Very little to show for a month of solid market performance. Breaking the market down by capitalization yields some interesting results.

Are the Dow Industrials benefiting from trivial weighting? Slicing our Leuthold 3000 universe into market cap deciles shows different performance results than commonly followed market indices.

An orderly decline of the dollar is not necessarily a big concern. On the other hand, a sudden collapse of the dollar, in conjunction with spiking U.S. interest rates, would be a terrible thing. So far this has not been the case.

Steps are falling into place for the U.S. market to climb another 15-20% into 2012.

VLT has turned up for most market indices. Even though it is still above the zero line, history shows that this signals an extension of the bull market.

With the new ISM figures for March, the Liquidity Index has moved into the maximum negative zone with a reading just below the bearish –20 threshold.

While Low Quality stocks have been beating High Quality, performance was on par in Q1. High Quality cheap relative to Low Quality and the tide may be turning.

Asset allocation portfolios continue to hold big positions in Emerging Markets. Jun Zhu presents an initial study exploring the use of Emerging Market Closed End Funds historical premium/discount levels as a predictor of future Emerging Market performance.

Our calculations show the rise and fall of equity group correlations over time. How does this impact returns both historically and going forward?

Momentum once again has the best performance. This out-of-favor factor has continued to outperform the rest of the factors.

Long term interest rates could continue rising, as inflation expectations increase and investors demand higher yields.

This month’s “Inside The Bond Market” presents our new “Risk Aversion Index,” which was developed by Chun Wang to respond to those factors that the bond market is truly worrying about. The Index examines ten factors on a monthly basis to help best position a bond portfolio.

Japan’s problems are leading many to write about the demise of nuclear power. However, Dave Kurzman not only believes the nuclear industry will survive, but will also prosper. See this month’s “Of Special Interest” for thoughts regarding this energy source from our Clean Tech guru.

Doug Ramsey highlights the “point of recognition” in this month’s “Inside The Stock Market” section. This is the point of maximum market upthrust, the point at which even hardened pessimists become convinced that the economic recovery and bull market are for real.