Latest Research

The inability of our politicians to recognize and resolve short and long term debt/deficit issues has caused many of us to lose even more confidence in Washington.

U.S. likely averted worst-case scenario of default, but credit rating downgrade is still likely. Main impact of downgrade is not the increase in interest rates itself, but rather the liquidity risk in all markets that involve treasury securities as collateral.

“Of Special Interest” takes a look at sector valuations through the lens of our GS Scores.

After annual summer correction re-run, we believe the market swoon is over, having produced a garden variety correction of -7.2%.

MTI studies of market values, investor psychology and price action have (so far) overwhelmed the economic “elephants in the room.” A few thoughts on those elephants.

Another breadth blastoff gives us reasons for optimism that our bullish predictions for the end of the year will hold.

It’s been quite awhile since we’ve engaged in target practice (... and considering my 20/300 vision, the world is a much safer place for it).

Stock markets across much of Europe are priced cheaply enough that investors might need very little incentive to get in, attempting to reap respectable returns.

High Quality Stocks outperformed their Low Quality comparators in the second quarter, and we find signs that a new High Quality Cycle is starting to take off.

The risk premium for stocks is making a comeback. Our quarterly examination of the stock/bond performance differential finds ten-year Treasuries are now the riskier asset class compared to equities.

Jun Zhu examines Chinese companies with Variable Interest Entity (VIE) structures. Investors shouldn’t be completely turned off by concerns over these structures, but it would be wise to heed the risks.

Looking to profit from the boom in domestic natural gas production? Dave Kurzman examines the opportunities and potential pitfalls in Shale gas, and finds some viable investment opportunities, but urges caution.

A small position in Steel was established in late June to increase our exposure to the top ranked Materials sector.

The month of June brought more of the same, with profitability, size and momentum continuing to work reasonably well.

$4.8 trillion of the additional $9 trillion in debt that Uncle Sam is expected to incur over the next decade is interest obligation.

The Monthly Risk Aversion Index edged down slightly in June, pausing for a clearer direction. The biggest contributors of risk are commodities and credit spreads.

“Of Special Interest” this month evaluates several stock market valuation techniques. Newfangled valuation techniques do not always lead to better results.

For now, net equity exposure in both the Core and Asset Allocation Portfolios will remain around 60%, as we wait to see what happens to this analysis in coming weeks.

Significant pull-back in High Beta stocks, but the weakening bid does not necessarily spell the end of the bull market.

Housing data is so far following the picture-perfect path of a bubble aftermath. Based on other bubbles, the next cyclical top in housing will likely occur at astonishingly low levels.