Latest Research

A new screening methodology for Leuthold’s traditional “Playing The Bounce” screen is presented and examined.

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing group attained one of the top GS Scores this month and has been rated Attractive for over a year now.

Among a number of Consumer Discretionary groups delivering Attractive ratings this month, we found General Merchandise Stores to be the most appealing candidate.

Health Care Technology has rated either Attractive or High Neutral for the past nine months, and it currently receives an Excellent rating in the Growth category.

Factor performance continues to flip-flop, one-year correlations hit all-time high, Earnings Revisions remains the strongest factor in 2011, which prompts a deeper look.

The Risk Aversion Index edged up during November. It is still on a “higher risk” signal. We will stay defensive and be patient. Higher quality assets within the fixed income space are favored.

Current record high corporate Profit Margins examined in this month’s “Of Special Interest.” Topics include the sustainability of the trend, commodities as profit trackers, margins as a potential forecasting tool and discussion on profits by sector and market cap. 

Despite the big October rebound, Doug Ramsey examines various market players and finds that dissatisfaction with recent market moves may proliferate among all but a select few.

Does a simple twist on the ISM Index produce an excellent stock market indicator?

Are mortgage rates still too high for a rebound when looking at real mortgage rates?

Why is right now a great time to buy Energy stocks?

So far so good, as sales and earnings numbers reported have been better than expected. Eric Weigel explores newly emerging trends from a number of angles and makes some cautious inferences.

Methodology for the new screen and the Dividend Sustainability Rank are discussed in detail. Dividend strategies continue to gain popularity, as equity investors grapple for yield.

In late October, Select Industries Equity Portfolio established three new holdings in Drug Retail, Hypermarkets & Super Centers, and Data Processing & Outsourced Services. Even with the MTI in Positive territory, we are maintaining some defensive exposure, as global economic worries persist.

Correlations finally drop during the October market rally. Both Value and Growth factors outperformed during the month. Some momentum factors have diverged… each is an atypical occurrence.

The Risk Aversion Index fell sharply during October. Despite the sharp drop in the index, it has not fallen enough to generate a new “lower risk” signal. Our take on the current reading  is “wait and see” with a bias towards lower risk.

This month’s “Of Special Interest” examines Federal tax revenues from corporations versus individuals. Despite strong revenue and earnings growth, corporations paid fewer taxes this year; all of the government’s revenue increase came from individuals.

Most costly market decoy in the last six weeks has been unusual (relative) strength of the Dow and S&P 500 indexes. Resilience in blue chips is characteristic of the early and middle phases of a bear market, but recent blue chip performance has been so stellar (again, in a relative sense) that most investors curled up comfortably in the “correction” camp…while small caps, cyclicals and virtually all foreign markets were screaming “BEAR!”

Select Industries Equity Portfolio established new holding in Biotech, which boosted Health Care exposure in that portfolio to over 45% of assets.

A new High Quality Cycle has clearly emerged and is going strong. Note that the previous High Quality Cycle started at the end of 2007 and lasted more than a year.