Latest Research

The risk premium for stocks is making a comeback. Our quarterly examination of the stock/bond performance differential finds ten-year Treasuries are now the riskier asset class compared to equities.

Jun Zhu examines Chinese companies with Variable Interest Entity (VIE) structures. Investors shouldn’t be completely turned off by concerns over these structures, but it would be wise to heed the risks.

Looking to profit from the boom in domestic natural gas production? Dave Kurzman examines the opportunities and potential pitfalls in Shale gas, and finds some viable investment opportunities, but urges caution.

A small position in Steel was established in late June to increase our exposure to the top ranked Materials sector.

The month of June brought more of the same, with profitability, size and momentum continuing to work reasonably well.

$4.8 trillion of the additional $9 trillion in debt that Uncle Sam is expected to incur over the next decade is interest obligation.

The Monthly Risk Aversion Index edged down slightly in June, pausing for a clearer direction. The biggest contributors of risk are commodities and credit spreads.

“Of Special Interest” this month evaluates several stock market valuation techniques. Newfangled valuation techniques do not always lead to better results.

For now, net equity exposure in both the Core and Asset Allocation Portfolios will remain around 60%, as we wait to see what happens to this analysis in coming weeks.

Significant pull-back in High Beta stocks, but the weakening bid does not necessarily spell the end of the bull market.

Housing data is so far following the picture-perfect path of a bubble aftermath. Based on other bubbles, the next cyclical top in housing will likely occur at astonishingly low levels.

In mid-May, we re-initiated a short position across all three tactical funds in U.S. Treasury bonds.

Mutual fund outflow played significant role in Major Trend deterioration. There have been about 6 1/2 months where the four week average has shown net inflow to U.S. equity funds, but outflow is now accelerating as three of last four weeks have seen net outflow.

Within the Select Industries portfolio, a new holding was established in the Pharmaceuticals group, boosting Health Care exposure in this equity portfolio to an overweight 34% (versus S&P 500 weight of 12%).

Periods of accelerating inflation generally lead to lagging stock market performance.

Graphical representation of the difficulty since the March 2009 market bottom. Not many factors have been effective.

More than one-half of the U.S. government’s additional $9 trillion in debt expected over the next ten years is projected to be interest. This is a frightening proposition.

Risk Aversion Index accelerated in May, making it prudent to favor defensive assets near term. Expect small and gradual increase in long term interest rates.

This month’s “Of Special Interest” takes a stab at debunking the “Sell In May And Go Away” anomaly. Instead, we have come to respect this annual strategy.

Don’t expect a summer swoon, but stocks may make little progress until fall. Most of our bull market targets discussed in 2009—early 2010 have been achieved with the exception of a return to median bull market peaks based on normalized earnings (only 1.5% away).