Latest Research

Leuthold Stock Quality Ranking work is currently showing that High Quality stocks outperformed during 2011. More upside for High Quality stocks going into 2012?

Even though the major indices ended the year flat for the most part, volatility measures paint a different story.

A detailed look at quantitative factor performance for 2011. What worked and what did not?

Bond Market Risk Aversion Index fell in December, resulting in a new “lower risk” signal that closed out the “higher risk” signal which occurred back in May. We are now cautiously optimistic.

Andy Engel revisits our Stock/Bond Performance Differential study which examines rolling stock/bond spreads over various time periods and subsequent asset class returns.  It appears that trends are finally reverting slowly toward the norm.

Doug Ramsey previews the 2011 hypothetical “Dream Portfolio” (or perhaps, “fear” portfolio). What would the portfolio manager with perfect foresight owned at the beginning of 2011? Should one now begin or continue to invest in the components of the Dream Portfolio?

Sure looks like a bear market rally rather than start of new bull market. Many global indexes still down 20% or more from peak levels.

Top marginal tax rate of 6%...applied only to income in excess of $500,000? It was a reality in 1913!

Jim Bianco observed in September that Europe was still in a “pre-Lehman” mentality regarding its debt crisis, in which investors and policymakers “were worried more about the equity and propriety of where taxpayer money was going than about fixing the problem.”

A rather surprising discovery when comparing intraday versus overnight market price action, and perhaps a “Smart Money” buy signal revealed as well?

Major Trend Index fell to Neutral in late November. Net equity exposure reduced to 51% in Core and Asset Allocation Portfolios.

A new screening methodology for Leuthold’s traditional “Playing The Bounce” screen is presented and examined.

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing group attained one of the top GS Scores this month and has been rated Attractive for over a year now.

Among a number of Consumer Discretionary groups delivering Attractive ratings this month, we found General Merchandise Stores to be the most appealing candidate.

Health Care Technology has rated either Attractive or High Neutral for the past nine months, and it currently receives an Excellent rating in the Growth category.

Factor performance continues to flip-flop, one-year correlations hit all-time high, Earnings Revisions remains the strongest factor in 2011, which prompts a deeper look.

The Risk Aversion Index edged up during November. It is still on a “higher risk” signal. We will stay defensive and be patient. Higher quality assets within the fixed income space are favored.

Current record high corporate Profit Margins examined in this month’s “Of Special Interest.” Topics include the sustainability of the trend, commodities as profit trackers, margins as a potential forecasting tool and discussion on profits by sector and market cap. 

Despite the big October rebound, Doug Ramsey examines various market players and finds that dissatisfaction with recent market moves may proliferate among all but a select few.

Does a simple twist on the ISM Index produce an excellent stock market indicator?