Latest Research

In our framework, Health Care is the number one performer year-to-date by almost five percentage points.

Despite flows out of U.S. focus equity mutual funds, investors remain heavily invested there; while dollars flood into bond funds, they’re also flowing into other varieties of equity funds.

What is the Fed going to do if another risk event hits and the S&P goes down 15-20%? Pray?

Updating our thoughts on our group holding as it continues its recovery. We’re still bullish despite its recent slip into the top of the High Neutral zone.

Does The Market Have A Party Preference In The Presidential Election? Results are a wash, so investors might rethink their assumptions about party affiliation and market performance.

The failed break-out to the upside on the U.S. 10-year yield fits our expectation of a range-bound but higher-volatility environment.

Drug Retail and other related groups could be poised to ride the rising tide of prescription drug spending.

With “That Time Of Year” approaching and the Major Trend Index not too far above the neutral zone, we review nine factors impacting the stock market from a glass-half-empty perspective.

Investor infatuation with portfolio income is higher than ever, just as there is less of it available than at any time in history.

Stock market sentiment is overheated, at least on a short-term basis. But does excessively optimistic market sentiment lead to worse September-October market action? Yes it does, but the observations are limited.

The Major Trend Index has been bullish throughout 2012, and the S&P 500 has delivered a total return of +12% through early August. Yet few managers have managed to match or exceed that benchmark, to do so, they would have had to be “fully invested and maximum defensive.”

This summer’s rally has taken stocks to the brink of another bull market high, but it has not been an all-inclusive affair. While the NYSE Daily Advance/Decline Line has remained healthy, other technical indicators have not.

While the big S&P companies’ EPS have held up, our earnings breadth work has not held up as well. Part of this development can be traced back to February 2011’s “Point of Recognition.”

VLT Momentum fired long-term BUY signals at the end of July on the Russell 2000, MSCI World Index and EAFE - and more signals could be coming…

Most investors don’t like to swim in shark-infested waters, but our screen may make it more comfortable for some to consider getting back in.

We recommend buying the asset-light, cash flow-rich hotel operators within the group.

A number of pharmaceutical giants are diversifying their business endeavors to offset increasing risks. Some are branching into the world of branded generics—generic drugs with recognizable brand names.

Updates for three groups we highlighted recently, including two domestic (Education Services and Automotive Retail), and one foreign-based thematic group, the Asia Healthy Tigers Index.

On a performance spread basis, most of the factor categories we monitor worked as intended during July.

Health Care and Consumer Staples valuations don’t look as dangerous as widely assumed. Utilities look expensive; conversely, the big corrections in the Industrials and Materials sectors have yet to create truly compelling valuations. The best sector for contrarians is Energy.