Latest Research

The Integrated Oil & Gas group was bought in the Select Industries Portfolio in late February. The group has been rated Attractive a majority of the time since November 2010.

Valuations are sliced and explored from a different angle.

Leuthold’s Doug Ramsey takes an in depth look at historical Small and Large Cap cycles and offers insight as to where we stand now and what can be expected going forward.

As January goes, so goes the year. 2012 looks like it could well be an up year for stocks based on the January barometer. Market cycle chart from 1958 also says 2012 will be the “time to buy.”

A response to why we are not yet committing to maximum 70% equity exposure in our tactical strategies.

Major Trend Index posted an impressive jump to even higher ground during January, and the most recent bullish reading lands at 1.54 versus the reading of 1.12 recorded at the end of December.

An addition of a second Industrial group to the portfolio, this group appealed for a number of reasons including a strong GS Score and continued demand stemming from its geographic diversification and broad customer base.

Leuthold’s Eric Weigel dissects earnings, sales and margin expectations for the coming year.

Leuthold’s Jun Zhu provides an update on China’s latest Five-Year Plan and how it may affect the Pharmaceutical industry in China. 

January performance was nearly opposite that of 2011… Shifts in factor performance and volatility are discussed.

In the near term, U.S. interest rates are expected to be range-bound, and we remain neutral on the U.S. yield curve. Bond Market Risk Aversion Index fell again in January, and remains on a “lower risk” signal.

Leuthold’s Eric Weigel examines both positive and negative tail risk among asset classes over two time periods… the recent volatile era versus a preceding, not-as-volatile time period.

An addition of an Industrial group to the strategy, Railroads appealed for a number of reasons including a strong GS Score and  improving margins across the industry.

From the stock market to politics to football, Doug Ramsey offers up ten predictions and thoughts for the New Year…. Even though we’ve already had a one month “peek” at 2012.

Major Trend Index improves to positive and Dow Theory Says “Buy”!

U.S. equity investors were disappointed in 2011, but we’d point out they fared better than investors in 45 of 48 other countries tracked by MSCI.

Forecast for 2019 (yes that’s 8 years away) is for S&P 500 to reach 1974 (an +8.0% ACR). Projection based simply on earnings growth and normalized P/E ratios.

The best strategy has been to buy not the prior year’s top performing sector or asset class, but to buy the runners-up—or “Bridesmaids”— of the prior year.

How did 2010’s “Dreams” and “Nightmares” pan out in 2011? What are 2011’s hypothetical portfolios predicting for 2012?

The last screen of 2011 is presented and historical November Bounce screen results are detailed.