Latest Research

The 10-year real yield turned positive at the end of 2012 and has stayed there. We expect higher interest rates, a stronger dollar, and lower gold prices in the next twelve months.

The recent upside breakout in the U.S. 10-year yield was successful, and it appears interest rates will remain in the new higher range for now. But what are the short-term implications of higher U.S. Treasury rates on asset allocation decisions?

We are highly skeptical “Abenomics” can produce different results this time.

Did we just get a Technical “all clear” sign? Is the trading day getting you down? What about corporate earnings, or sovereign debt and the stock market?

We are in clear view of the “Twin Peaks” S&P 500 highs of the last decade and these should be eclipsed by mid-year. But when the S&P 500 is adjusted for inflation or denominated in Swiss Francs or Gold these highs may prove elusive.

The late 1970’s bull market has some eerie similarities, and sentiment reflects Main Street’s newfound bullishness. Plus a look at January fund category flows gives us some points to ponder.

Value factor performance took off at the end of June last year and never looked back; posting positive Q1 minus Q5 spreads every month since.

We’ve lately made it a January tradition to publish a “Rear View Mirror” forecast for S&P 500 returns out to the end of this decade.

Our “second best really is best” analysis comes up with an asset class we like and a sector we hate, plus trying it monthly doesn’t work out quite the way we thought it would.

Some of the best and worst performers of 2011 repeated their performance in 2012.

Our Stock Quality Rankings currently show that stocks with Low Quality rankings outperformed those with High Quality rankings.

Select Industries makes an Advertising buy, looking for the large integrated agencies to make their best pitch.

A review of correlations and factor performance. Plus, weighting matters in sector performance as we compare the S&P 500 to our Leuthold 3000 universe.

The primary benefits are their inflation and U.S. dollar hedging capabilities.

We still think interest rates are likely to be range-bound, but the range will likely shift higher to the 185-240 bps area if the current breakout is successful.

We’re downplaying the new signal’s significance and remain cautiously optimistic towards risky assets near term. Our biggest concern is that a rise is extremely likely going forward. 

While we don’t know which direction it will head next, we break down a few of the MTI categories and present some of our observations.

Retail stocks barely paused during the September-November market setback, and have lately shot to new all-time relative strength (RS) highs. We were recently asked whether this bullish behavior was effectively an “inoculation” against falling into recession over the near term. 

Our annual screen presents the candidates with the largest declines and smallest rebounds, thus far, in each market cap segment.

This group has been Attractive since March, and currently ranks fourth in our Group Scoring model. We think an improving fundamental story, coupled with a strong GS Score, is emerging from this ravaged industry.