Latest Research

Leuthold Stock Quality Ranking work is currently showing that High Quality stocks outperformed during the last quarter.

The April/May swoon (an S&P 500 loss of -9.9%) has been accompanied by significant deterioration in our Major Trend Index. But the latest reading (data through June 1st) stayed positive, and our best guess is that it will hold firm.

While this is not our forecast, some investors will no doubt be mortified to learn that a “typical” calendar year (again, if there were such a thing) contains a drawdown as large as –13.5%.

Is there an historical precedent for important stock market highs to occur in the same month for three or more consecutive years? YES. In 1938-1942 the S&P 500 registered key highs during the first two weeks of January for five straight years.

What were QE2 and Operation Twist intended for if not to save Europe?

Yes, we consider U.S. Treasury securities a bubble across the entire yield spectrum, and the situation has probably now moved into “extra innings” (think 10th or 11th) thanks to the flight to (perceived) quality triggered by the European debt crisis.

Taking into account the variety of total return contributors, we conclude that no one regional equity market stands out as a slam dunk investment idea.

The Homefurnishing Retail group was purchased in the Select Industries Portfolio in late May.

Should this group once again be a candidate for investors looking to be defensive? Probably not.

The worst performers are the first sell candidates for investors looking to shed assets.

As global capital markets are yet again dominated by extreme macro-economic uncertainty, gold appears to be behaving as a hedge against extreme equity market movements, a store of value and an alternative to fiat currencies.

This new “Higher Risk” signal closed out the previous “Lower Risk” signal generated last December, and this measure is telling us it’s time to play a little defense.

Going forward, at least in the near term, we think a good guide for the potential downside on U.S. interest rates might be the German bund yields.

Trying to forget the April tops of the past two years appears to be difficult for many as sentiment measures remain relatively dismal (which is a stock market positive). What insight can we gain from this?

U.S. focused equity mutual funds see continued net outflows. A look back at mutual fund flows during past bull markets answers whether public participation is required to reach new stock market highs….And does a bigger Bear market equate to a bigger Bull market recovery?

How is the U.S. stacking up relative to foreign markets since 2009 market lows?

An interesting take on country demographics versus valuations.

Exploring VLT (Very Long Term) Momentum readings in foreign markets versus the S&P 500.

A look at how to “Sell in May” without actually selling.

Does a bigger Bear market equate to a bigger Bull market recovery?