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With no obvious technical resistance left for the U.S. stock market, we’re skeptical of the “long cycle” view, primarily based on valuations and “provincial” data points.

If you think being “sequestered” or “Cyprussed” is no fun, turn the calendar back a century. 1913 saw the authorization of the Federal Reserve System and the ratification of the income tax amendment to the Constitution. (CNBC’s Rick Santelli would have been apoplectic.)

At 15.8x Normalized EPS, the non-U.S. developed world (measured by the MSCI World Ex USA Index) still hasn’t managed to recover to its old lows of 18x seen in both 1992 and 2002.

In this note, we discuss our market-level measure of quality, and highlight an expanded methodology for determining the “quality” of a stock and the performance implications associated with such a concept.

After a recent rough patch due to a multitude of factors (macro driven markets, high correlations, etc.), our domestic Group Selection (GS) Scores started seeing more consistent performance during the fall of 2012. This continued through the first quarter of this year, with the Attractive to Unattractive return spread at +3.0% year-to-date.

In this report we take an in-depth look at the evolution of the industry, particularly the U.S. mutual fund industry, to help understand how some fund flow trends are more of an indication of evolving investor preferences instead of an indication of retail investor sentiment toward a particular asset class.

The global economy is stuck in a “muddle through” mode with developed and emerging countries showing divergence in terms of leading indicators. Despite this divergence, they share one thing in common: an upturn in inflation. How much more room there is for easing is a key determinant of asset market performance.

It’s not just kids’ sports where the achievement bar has been lowered. 

Changes in a major EM ETF’s benchmark and another big player’s new EM ETF introduction could provide stock pickers opportunities in select Emerging Markets.

Group’s technical and value profile drive Attractive rating, and its diverse mix of companies are poised to benefit from the current macro environment.

Models based on so-called relative valuations have a poor track record in practice, having misled investors at several historic inflection points. Interest rates have virtually no impact on stock market valuations, but they may have transitory effects on stocks in the short term.

The 10-year real yield turned positive at the end of 2012 and has stayed there. We expect higher interest rates, a stronger dollar, and lower gold prices in the next twelve months.

The recent upside breakout in the U.S. 10-year yield was successful, and it appears interest rates will remain in the new higher range for now. But what are the short-term implications of higher U.S. Treasury rates on asset allocation decisions?

We are highly skeptical “Abenomics” can produce different results this time.

Did we just get a Technical “all clear” sign? Is the trading day getting you down? What about corporate earnings, or sovereign debt and the stock market?

We are in clear view of the “Twin Peaks” S&P 500 highs of the last decade and these should be eclipsed by mid-year. But when the S&P 500 is adjusted for inflation or denominated in Swiss Francs or Gold these highs may prove elusive.

The late 1970’s bull market has some eerie similarities, and sentiment reflects Main Street’s newfound bullishness. Plus a look at January fund category flows gives us some points to ponder.

Value factor performance took off at the end of June last year and never looked back; posting positive Q1 minus Q5 spreads every month since.

We’ve lately made it a January tradition to publish a “Rear View Mirror” forecast for S&P 500 returns out to the end of this decade.

Our “second best really is best” analysis comes up with an asset class we like and a sector we hate, plus trying it monthly doesn’t work out quite the way we thought it would.