Latest Research

Leuthold’s Eric Weigel examines both positive and negative tail risk among asset classes over two time periods… the recent volatile era versus a preceding, not-as-volatile time period.

An addition of an Industrial group to the strategy, Railroads appealed for a number of reasons including a strong GS Score and  improving margins across the industry.

From the stock market to politics to football, Doug Ramsey offers up ten predictions and thoughts for the New Year…. Even though we’ve already had a one month “peek” at 2012.

Major Trend Index improves to positive and Dow Theory Says “Buy”!

U.S. equity investors were disappointed in 2011, but we’d point out they fared better than investors in 45 of 48 other countries tracked by MSCI.

Forecast for 2019 (yes that’s 8 years away) is for S&P 500 to reach 1974 (an +8.0% ACR). Projection based simply on earnings growth and normalized P/E ratios.

The best strategy has been to buy not the prior year’s top performing sector or asset class, but to buy the runners-up—or “Bridesmaids”— of the prior year.

How did 2010’s “Dreams” and “Nightmares” pan out in 2011? What are 2011’s hypothetical portfolios predicting for 2012?

The last screen of 2011 is presented and historical November Bounce screen results are detailed.

Leuthold Stock Quality Ranking work is currently showing that High Quality stocks outperformed during 2011. More upside for High Quality stocks going into 2012?

Even though the major indices ended the year flat for the most part, volatility measures paint a different story.

A detailed look at quantitative factor performance for 2011. What worked and what did not?

Bond Market Risk Aversion Index fell in December, resulting in a new “lower risk” signal that closed out the “higher risk” signal which occurred back in May. We are now cautiously optimistic.

Andy Engel revisits our Stock/Bond Performance Differential study which examines rolling stock/bond spreads over various time periods and subsequent asset class returns.  It appears that trends are finally reverting slowly toward the norm.

Doug Ramsey previews the 2011 hypothetical “Dream Portfolio” (or perhaps, “fear” portfolio). What would the portfolio manager with perfect foresight owned at the beginning of 2011? Should one now begin or continue to invest in the components of the Dream Portfolio?

Sure looks like a bear market rally rather than start of new bull market. Many global indexes still down 20% or more from peak levels.

Top marginal tax rate of 6%...applied only to income in excess of $500,000? It was a reality in 1913!

Jim Bianco observed in September that Europe was still in a “pre-Lehman” mentality regarding its debt crisis, in which investors and policymakers “were worried more about the equity and propriety of where taxpayer money was going than about fixing the problem.”

A rather surprising discovery when comparing intraday versus overnight market price action, and perhaps a “Smart Money” buy signal revealed as well?

Major Trend Index fell to Neutral in late November. Net equity exposure reduced to 51% in Core and Asset Allocation Portfolios.