Latest Research

Industry groups and stocks are now trading at record correlations.

The new deal reached by Congress has little substance and no impact at all until 2014 or beyond. More “kick the can down the road.” Long term debt/deficit issues remain unsolved.

As we expected, the U.S. downgrade was digested by the market fairly quickly and attention turned to the economy. This is a bear market in confidence, more than anything else.

Major Trend Index fell to Negative at beginning of August. Assumption is that we are now in the beginning of a cyclical bear market that may produce a 20%-25% loss within the next six months or so.

The 30-point collapse in the S&P 500 on Tuesday, August 2nd completed a bearish H&S pattern that has been several months in the making.

Select Industries equity portfolio established a new group holding in Fertilizer & Agricultural Chemicals.

The Leuthold Group has always been a big proponent of sector rotation strategies. In this month’s “Inside The Stock Market” section, Jun Zhu examines sector rotation in emerging markets and presents a series of ETFs that facilitate this strategy.

Doug Ramsey examines several once very reliable relationships between stocks, bonds, inflation, and commodities.

Chinese Pharmaceuticals have been sold off considerably in recent months, but look very attractive on a valuation basis. There are fundamental problems, but in light of China’s objective of universal health care coverage there is significant upside. See “Healthy Tigers” update in “Inside The Stock Market”.

Some steps are being taken to enhance our Global Group framework. This process, which was formally launched in late 2006, is the basis for our Leuthold Global Industries Fund.

Insider Activity measures finally additive in July after six months of negative results;  other factors’ performance deteriorated, however.

The inability of our politicians to recognize and resolve short and long term debt/deficit issues has caused many of us to lose even more confidence in Washington.

U.S. likely averted worst-case scenario of default, but credit rating downgrade is still likely. Main impact of downgrade is not the increase in interest rates itself, but rather the liquidity risk in all markets that involve treasury securities as collateral.

“Of Special Interest” takes a look at sector valuations through the lens of our GS Scores.

After annual summer correction re-run, we believe the market swoon is over, having produced a garden variety correction of -7.2%.

MTI studies of market values, investor psychology and price action have (so far) overwhelmed the economic “elephants in the room.” A few thoughts on those elephants.

Another breadth blastoff gives us reasons for optimism that our bullish predictions for the end of the year will hold.

It’s been quite awhile since we’ve engaged in target practice (... and considering my 20/300 vision, the world is a much safer place for it).

Stock markets across much of Europe are priced cheaply enough that investors might need very little incentive to get in, attempting to reap respectable returns.

High Quality Stocks outperformed their Low Quality comparators in the second quarter, and we find signs that a new High Quality Cycle is starting to take off.