Latest Research

Taxes are slated to go up as Bush tax cuts expire. History shows that selling increases in anticipation of higher capital gains taxes. Stock performance also does better in anticipation of lower tax environments than higher.

Matt Paschke discusses how public pension funds are approaching huge hurdles as state and municipal governments have promised more than they are able to provide.

Momentum cannot sustain itself, as multiple trends reversed over last two months. Profitability focus has returned to the marketplace as risk aversion grows.

We expect risk appetites to remain low and investors to continue to reward conservative stock characteristics over the next 3-6 months.

A mountain of new debt, a balloon of short term borrowing due near term, and the likelihood of higher interest rates are big hurdles.

In this month’s “Of Special Interest”, David Kurzman, manager of the “Leuthold Global Clean Technology” mutual fund provides his take on whether the Gulf oil spill will present any real opportunities for alternative energy stocks.

Doug Ramsey looks at the history of “severe” market corrections (declines of 12% to 18%), and contrasts that with true bear markets.

Despite our still (cautiously) bullish outlook, historical P/E levels which once provided support to the stock market are expected to now offer resistance as the market moves higher.

Here Comes The Sun! Read about Dave Kurzman’s outlook for the solar energy industry.

We examine the relative importance of country effect vs. sector effect within four regions: Europe, Eastern Europe/Middle East/Africa, Asia Pacific ex-Japan ex-China, and Americas ex-U.S.

A mountain of new debt, a balloon of short term borrowing due near term, and the likelihood of higher interest rates are big hurdles. Moody’s says U.S. debt could test its AAA rating.

Substantial turnover in Select Industries Portfolio created room for several new industry group positions to be established.

One of the great contrary trades in recent memory may well have been the Consumer Discretionary stocks during the last recession and early in the recovery. The consumer had been written off, but these stocks have been the clear market leader. It looks, however, like the move may be running out of steam.

Analysts typically focus on demand for products and rarely look at the supply side. Consumer Discretionary companies were rewarded for their pessimistic positioning with better pricing and higher margins. 

Global Industries equity portfolio has little to no exposure to the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain) as our Global Group Selection Scores have not led us to industries that have many component stocks domiciled in those countries.  However, if this work leads us to groups with heavier exposure to the PIIGS, we’ll buy them without blinking.

When you are all doing the same thing at the same time, it’s usually a good time to question if the investment makes sense anymore.

Stock market valuations no longer cheap, but they are also not yet truly expensive. Eric Bjorgen isolates several valuation measures to show just where they rank historically

Helping propel the stock market recovery has been a build-up of excess liquidity. This has now generally been put to use, and can no longer be counted on as a market driver.

Focus of global investing has shifted from sector and is now centered on the regional effect.

Adding new Select Industries equity portfolio holding in thematic group called Hispanic Boom, a play on expanding Hispanic population and their increased buying power. This growing demographic will maintain its brand loyalty, and our Hispanic Boom theme has identified several beneficiaries.