Latest Research

Our Scanning table this issue focuses on the equity group performance following the September 11th terrorist attacks.

Yield curve has risen dramatically in recent weeks, probably forecasting economic recovery ahead (6-12 months?), but also reflecting deteriorating budget surplus situation.

With the September 11th Attacks, America came to realize vulnerabilities not previously imagined. This study looks at companies that may aid in heightening security measures.

What I Worry About...The possibility of this being a secular, not a cyclical bear market. Four decades in the investment business have taught me to respect the message of the market itself.

Can there be a significant market rally without a tech rally? Maybe not. S&P 500 tech weight (16.9%) now slightly below our “normal” target weight of 17%.

Earnings seem to be dependent on who the source is. S&P has taken a tougher line, excluding expenses that it considers part of “normal” operations.

YTD, $55 billion net inflow now running 73% behind last year’s $201 billion for the same period.

A comparison of stock market net new equity supply with and without Convertibles.

Early in June, it appeared that big block selling was on the decline. But in July and August, selling has resumed at a furious pace.

A decrease in occurrences of 2% days for the S&P 500 this year. Of the 169 trading days so far this year, only 17 have been moves in excess of 2% (10% of the time). There were no 2% moves in August.

Continuing to evaluate the Leuthold Index methodology.

Examining some of the impacts that decimalization and the inclusion of financial derivatives may have on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line & ARMs Index.

Several clients called, expressing an interest in our recently constructed “Internet Survivors?” theme. This is now being presented monthly in Leuthold’s Groups ~ Equity Strategies (the “Blue Book”).

Upgrade to Attractive is result of broad quantitative improvement in almost all measures.

It’s been a very difficult market, as there has been very little prolonged group leadership. This is to be expected near market bottoms, as investors are shifting assets quickly in these uncertain times.

Economy  may already be halfway or more through recession. GDP growth still barely positive, but revisions could change that. Tech bust magnitude and breadth of Q2 profit plunge spell recession.

Cash Flow analysis can offer an attractive alternative to the traditional earnings approach to “Value” judgments.

Charley Maxwell’s “Nearing The Top Of The Hubbert Curve” from August is must reading. Decimal Trading in sub-pennies? Read what Barry Small, Weeden’s CEO, has to say about this. Also, what’s so bad about the lottery?

Full Disclosure (Reg FD), Investment Banking conflicts (hardly a recent development) and the Nikkei and DJIA: Will they cross this year?

We were wrong about a rally in July...What about August?...Much to your family’s dismay, you may want to bring along your cell phone and laptop to the beach this month.