Latest Research

Have we really had a big correction in growth stocks, or is the growth index just being pulled down by the tech bust?

Worse than expected Q2 earnings (losses) beat down the tech sector in July. The bad news just won’t end.

Earnings are cyclical! This becomes especially obvious near peaks and troughs.

The past two months have seen growing caution on the part of Main Street investors, as monthly net inflow levels have declined to single digit levels in each of the past two months.

Selling volume steps up in July.

The NASDAQ volatility continues to slow but the S&P 500 was surprisingly volatile in July.

Continuing to evaluate the Leuthold Index methodology.

Introducing our new “Internet Survivors?” group screen: Internet companies that we believe may have higher potential to weather the storm and survive this tech bear market.

Group had rare double upgrade from Unattractive to Attractive this month.

It’s been a very difficult market, as there has been very little prolonged group leadership. This is to be expected near market bottoms, as investors are shifting assets quickly in these uncertain times.

GDP growth still barely positive, but trend has been sharply lower. May already be halfway through a recession. Tech bust and Q2 profit decline additionally support this view.

By Kate Welling - Companies are still acting, by and large, as if they have an inalienable right to spin numbers in whatever direction produces the most pleasing results.

The European view of the world, by guest “View” editor, Jim Bianco.

Leadership Expectations: Small and Mid Caps (not Large Caps); Energy Rebound; Biotech and Broad Health Care; some Technology subsets. How long for the NASDAQ to recover to previous highs? Assuming an 11% annual growth rate, the “NAZ” will not recoup until September 2009.

The NBER (U.S. “recession judge”) often fails to label recessions until after they are over. Sector Earnings in 2001: Estimate operating earnings for the cap weighted measures will be down 15%, maybe 20%. Expect the economy will start to stabilize by year-end, and improve in early 2002.

Our work indicates Small and Mid Cap growth stock action is heating up. It is entirely possible that a transition to Small and Mid Cap growth leadership is already in the works.

Mid-year update how an investor would have done if they had been fortunate enough to invest in the 20 best performing industry groups (and visa versa).

After weathering a big correction in March and early April, Tech stocks have recently acted pretty well considering the dismal earnings and worsening outlook.

U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $14 billion is estimated for June. The bear market which began roughly 15 months ago has caused investors to become much more cautious toward equities this year, as evidenced by the depressed YTD net inflow levels going into U.S. focus equity funds.

In June, the NASDAQ and S&P 500 volatility tapered off considerably.