Latest Research

I am positive about today’s stock market, but there are some considerations that could cause my optimism to be premature. A bubble/bust comparison between the great gold and silver bubble of 1979-1980 versus the 1998-present Internet sector. Not all single digit stocks should be shunned.

Some may disagree, but a number of classic bull market transition elements are in place. Also, falling Earnings are not reason to stay away from the stock market. Superior performance comes in the years earnings are falling the most.

Tech stocks came roaring back in April (Info Tech sector up 22%), but don’t expect another parabolic rise!

Based on the weekly Advance/Decline line, market breadth has improved considerably. This is evidence of a much stronger underlying stock market than the S&P 500 and other measures might indicate.

So far in 2001, 62% of trading days qualify as Extreme Volatility compared to the historical norm of 4% since 1971.

U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $15 billion is estimated for April. This reverses the record level $15.7 billion monthly outflow in March.

Despite stock price corrections in the last year, significant net selling continues among the “smart money”.

Continuing to evaluate Leuthold Index methodology.

New series compares index industry sector weights with sales and earnings contributions.

If we get another performance month like April, we may again have to re-christen this as The Internet Opportunity Index.

This highly cyclical group should benefit earlier than the chipmakers in a recovery.

In April, the technology stocks came roaring back to life. Of the 20 best performing groups during the month, 14 were technology related.

Overall inflationary pressures subsiding, but expect a few more energy related flare ups.

Increased disclosure of mutual fund holdings detrimental to investment performance.

Bear market broadened out in late March to include other than technology sectors. Never before have so many lost so much.…There is plenty of blame to go around. Academia, The Street, the Media, the “Experts” to name a few.

Tech valuations very much back in line, the question is, how low can they go?

Despite the market’s weakness in March, the breadth experienced some deterioration in the last half of the month.

The 10 best and 10 worst performing equity groups over the last twelve months.

In 2000, the NASDAQ was the most volatile it had ever been. However, in 2001, new standards are being set.

U.S. focus equity fund net redemptions of $11 billion are estimated for March.