Latest Research

Our Aggressive Stance On Equity Exposure: Fed cuts, money supply expansion, tax cut prospects, fund inflow, and market internals.….Not all worries have gone away, however. This bear market has not followed what can be thought of as a traditional course.

Our strategy was to buy ten “quality” Large/Mid Cap names down at least 50% from their 2000 highs. A list of our ten purchases (equally weighted), as well as subsequent realized gains.

The underlying decline in valuations and tech stock weightings in the cap weighted market indices probably has further to go in 2001.

January’s $30 billion net inflow the strongest January on record (beating January 2000).

In 2000, cash acquisitions of public companies reduced the U.S. equity base at a far greater magnitude than ever before. Now it looks as though this trend is continuing this year.

The latest 10-week reading fell 28% from previous week, but remains above historical selling extremes.

New year opens with continued high volatility. 62% of the NASDAQ trading days in January moved up or down 1% or more.

Continuing to evaluate Leuthold Index methodology.

The Internet Insanity Index had a big bounce in January. These stocks were severely beaten down and a bounce was expected.

Upgrade to Attractive last month put Department Stores on our radar, and February’s move into the GS “top ten” confirms the quantitative strength of this group. Improving technicals, stronger than expected January sales and increasing probability of soft landing indicating a promising outlook for this group.

Quite a reversal of fortune in January, compared to last year. Of the 20 best performers in January, 13 groups are still down over the last twelve months.

Strong mutual fund inflows in January helped propel High Yield bond returns up 7% for the month. Yield spreads narrowed significantly relative to Quality Corporates but remain very attractive.

Earnings are declining and economy has slowed. Just why are we buying stocks?

Thermal pollution time again: Steve’s New Year predictions for the economy and his market outlook, including a look back at last year’s forecasts.

Two trading days into 2001, and the first day delivered the second-worst-ever, first day trading loss in the S&P 500 (the worst-ever being the first day of 1932!). Day Two: A surprise, 50 basis point Fed rate cut, brought an upside explosion.

We decided to Play The Bounce during the final few days of December. Window dressing and tax loss selling had continued, especially in the technology sector, creating buying opportunities.

S&P Technology Weighting has fallen to about 21.9% from nearly 35% in February. Expect it to fall to 20% or below (recession?) within the next year.

Poor performance by Large cap technology issues had a very negative impact on S&P 500 cap weighted performers in 2000.

A look at “what might have been”.

Managers have been timid about investing in the market, especially since the end of Q1, with only 56% of net new cash flow actually being invested in stocks.