Latest Research

It was not too hard for our equity groups to outperform during November, as 83 of our 132 equity groups (63%) outperformed the S&P 500, with 41 of these turning in flat or positive returns (31% of all groups). Compared to the NASDAQ, 113 of the groups (86%) performed better.

Overall inflationary pressures subsiding, but expect some energy related flair-ups.

Typical technology/communications stocks down about 40% to 50% YTD. Bounce list is dominated by these stocks.

“What? You’re buying Junk Bonds?!” Although some may view this as a high-risk, contrarian bet, the logic behind the strategy is explained.

Stock market returns for U.S. Presidents while in office. (Whig Party Presidents produced best average returns!)

I think November might be a rather dreary month for the U.S. stock market, even if we don’t get those cold chilling rains.

Not even the mighty techs are immune to saturation, overcapacity, cyclicality, and fierce competition.

Leuthold’s perspective regarding the nine groups currently employed in the Paid To Play Portfolio.…Sector underweights can be as significant (or more so) than sector overweights.

S&P volatility accelerates in October while NASDAQ volatility continues at unbelievable levels.

Supply/Demand wildly bullish—wo why isn’t the market going up? A look beyond the supply/demand dynamics factors.

The latest 10-week reading has risen back above historical selling extremes after spending several weeks within the high end of the “normal” selling range.

Currently evaluating Leuthold Index methodology.

Over the last two months, the Internet Insanity Index has come down hard. The 16.1% loss in October follows an 11.7% September decline.

The DJIA was up 3.0% in October, but most other market indices fell. The S&P 500 was down 0.5%, with the NASDAQ continuing to trail the pack with an 8.3% loss during the month.

U.S. economy losing momentum, global economy slowing more…..Increasing odds of recession in 2001, as banks tighten credit, energy costs remain high, and technology falters.

First bounce list was run in early October. We will not be “Playing the Bounce” at this time, but may consider it in mid-December.

Leuthold’s current point of view and outlook regarding  the Economy, Interest Rates, Inflation, and Earnings.

October carries a reputation with investors as the “cruelest  month”, but statistically, September is most likely to be a downer. Paid To Play Portfolio: Now up an unbelievable 57% YTD. Tech Sunset? Professionals seem to be lightening their load in technology and communication commitments, now targeting a market weight.

· It really is incredible that equity fund inflows have held up so well this year. Also, Supply Factors: Heavy cash acquisition activity is bullish for stocks, since it reduces the overall equity supply available to investors.