Latest Research

· Still expect one more rate hike due to rekindling of stock market enthusiasm, prospects of accelerating inflation, and reported wage inflation numbers understated.

The popularity of SPDRs has opened the floodgates for new species: VIPERs, HLDRs, and iSHAREs.

Many consultants and their clients have tightened the style boxes and narrowed the definitions to such a degree that it hamstrings the manager….and it’s detrimental to the client’s long term results.

Kate Welling shares her insight on the recent market action. Also, the 2000 NASDAQ Market...The magnitude and short duration of both the Spring decline and the last few days’  20%+ rally, are a direct reflection of the sad state of liquidity in the NASDAQ market.

This is the most volatile market year for the S&P 500 since 1938.  Now well beyond the 45.1% level recorded in 1974.

Only one week of significant net equity fund redemptions in May. Investors not only buying the rallies but now also buying the declines?

YTD offerings of $107 billion have been overtaken by $108 billion in YTD cash acquisitions. This produces net equity shrink of $1 billion so far this year.

Latest 10-week reading has risen again to another all time high.

The Leuthold Group has set about to create a more realistic assessment of Big, Mid, Small, and Micro cap performance.

The Internet Insanity Index has continued to deflate rapidly with a 17.3% loss recorded in May.

Despite weaker economic news, still expect Fed to bump rates up at least once more.

Activating “Natural Gas Play” thematic group, which was upgraded to attractive this month. Charley Maxwell says it’s not too late.

Despite the painful tech market in May, with the S&P 500 down 2.2% and the NASDAQ down 11.9%, there were several groups performing well.

Earnings Momentum appears to have slipped some in Q1. Peak earnings momentum now behind us. Expect slowdown, as economy cools and cost pressures heat up.

Further Fed tightening to come…..Next few month inflation news likely to be scary.

Special reprint of Steve Leuthold, Byron Wien and Charley Maxwell conference call from early April.

What has happened to the Stock/Bond Models? Does the CPI now understate inflation? If stock market returns average 20% per year, as some investors expect, young investors need not worry about Social Security…Fat Chance!

Modifications to Major Trend Index improve reading, but MTI is still very negative.

Margin debt creates problem for the market.

NASDAQ moved 1% or more every day but one in April!