Latest Research

First bounce list was run in early October. We will not be “Playing the Bounce” at this time, but may consider it in mid-December.

Leuthold’s current point of view and outlook regarding  the Economy, Interest Rates, Inflation, and Earnings.

October carries a reputation with investors as the “cruelest  month”, but statistically, September is most likely to be a downer. Paid To Play Portfolio: Now up an unbelievable 57% YTD. Tech Sunset? Professionals seem to be lightening their load in technology and communication commitments, now targeting a market weight.

· It really is incredible that equity fund inflows have held up so well this year. Also, Supply Factors: Heavy cash acquisition activity is bullish for stocks, since it reduces the overall equity supply available to investors.

S&P volatility moderating while NASDAQ volatility bounced back to very high levels.

Currently evaluating the Leuthold Index methodology.

After rebounding in August (16.7%), the Internet Insanity Index fell 11.7% in September. Of the 131 equity groups we track, the Insanity Index trailed 113.

The latest 10-week reading has risen back above historical selling extremes.

The market conditions looked stronger at the beginning of September, but warnings of disappointing earnings quickly drove the market down.

U.S. economy still has considerable momentum, but see signs of a slowdown ahead...Increasing odds of a recession in 2001, as banks tighten credit, energy costs remain high, and technology stocks falter.

Since February, valuations have plummeted 37%, about half way back to median levels. However, relative P/E ratios paint a different picture.

Stock Market Sweet Spot between now and election. Fewer impediments with inflation pressures easing and economy showing signs of a slowdown. Also, making a case for Mid Caps and is the Paid To Play performance for real?

The YTD $194 billion net inflow through the end of August is now 67% more than 1999’s $116 billion net inflow over the same YTD period, and has already matched the annual record (1997’s $194 billion). Supply/Demand: Offerings volume was very heavy during the first half of August, but began to dry up in the second half of the month.

Down significantly In August...New trend or anomaly?

Currently evaluating Leuthold Index methodology.

The spurts and dips seen on the chart of our Internet Insanity Index are mouthwatering to both bulls and bears alike.

Big block transactions total about $47 billion so far this year, almost twice the YTD levels of 1998 and 1999 when insider selling was at historically high levels. This year’s level of selling is unprecedented.

Technology stocks came roaring back in August, with the broad Information Technology sector racking up a 17.4% gain.

The U.S. economy still has considerable momentum, but there are now more signs of a slowdown ahead. Global economy is slowing down even more.

A record 13 new equities achieved Royal Blue status. Today, technology, media and communications make up 40% of the Royal Blues, compared to about 23% five years ago.