Latest Research

What has happened to the Stock/Bond Models? Does the CPI now understate inflation? If stock market returns average 20% per year, as some investors expect, young investors need not worry about Social Security…Fat Chance!

Modifications to Major Trend Index improve reading, but MTI is still very negative.

Margin debt creates problem for the market.

NASDAQ moved 1% or more every day but one in April!

Surprised by the perseverance of U.S. mutual fund investors. In spite of market turmoil, $25 billion flowed into U.S. focus equity funds…The public did actually buy the dip.

Big block insider selling through the roof, as 1999 IPOs unlock.

A net increase of $30 billion in new supply this year. Quite a reversal from 1999 where YTD $39 billion of new offerings was almost 50% less than cash acquisitions.

The Leuthold Group has set about to create a more realistic assessment of Big, Mid, Small, and Micro cap performance.

The Internet Insanity Index continued its descent back to earth with a big 18.2% decline during April.

With the improvement of the Pharmaceutical group within our GS Score rankings to attractive, along with Biotech’s fall from grace (all the way to unattractive), we are getting a chance to make a move into the drug stocks.

Technology stocks were particularly hard hit in April, with nine of the 15 worst performing groups being Tech related.

Individuals are sincere about investing appropriately, but get virtually no advise about risk. Also, putting the speed and volatility of the internet revolution in perspective.

Year 2000 Q1 is history. Initially technology ruled, but “old economy” stocks revived late in the quarter, although it looked for a while like they might be terminal. But, you want to know what I think will happen now.

We believe Energy and Health Care are now moving into leadership positions.

This has been the best start to a new year on record in terms of net inflows, with $100 billion coming in during the first quarter. However, the cash acquisition “equity shrinking” trend has allowed the flood of mutual fund inflows to overwhelm reduced net supply.

High level of selling indicating corporate insiders see a rough road ahead for the stock market. Historically, insiders have been right.

This is the most volatile market year for the S&P 500 since 1938, now surpassing the 45.1% level recorded in 1974.

New Leuthold Capitalization Tier performance measures explained and detailed.

Performance for the entire Insanity Index has been aided by the inclusion of the Online Brokers in this group. This subset of our index was up almost 24% on average in March, and up 33% YTD.

Biotech took a big tumble in March, and its 30% loss was the worst performing group. Technology issues were also particularly hard hit with 5 of the next 7 worst performers high tech groups.