Latest Research

S&P Technology Weighting has fallen to about 21.9% from nearly 35% in February. Expect it to fall to 20% or below (recession?) within the next year.

Poor performance by Large cap technology issues had a very negative impact on S&P 500 cap weighted performers in 2000.

A look at “what might have been”.

Managers have been timid about investing in the market, especially since the end of Q1, with only 56% of net new cash flow actually being invested in stocks.

Big block net sells hit a record $70 billion for 2000. This is 84% more than the previous record year (1999’s $38 billion).

The current volatility in the NASDAQ is unprecedented over the 30 year life of this index.

Continuing to evaluate Leuthold Index methodology.

In 2000, cash acquisitions of public companies reduced the U.S. equity base at a far greater magnitude than ever before.

The Internet Insanity Index continued to lose ground in December, However, the 4.6% loss was not nearly as devastating as the 36% loss recorded in November.

Investors are likely happy to see 2000 come to an end. While much of the focus was on the crushing defeat of Tech stocks last year, there were many pockets of strength.

U.S economy weakening faster than expected: Global economy also slowing. Increasing odds of a hard landing in 2001.

Our annual review of our significant studies, portfolio shifts, and recommendations…..the good and the bad. Also, an evaluation of 2000 performance: Paid To Play equity portfolio, and asset allocation portfolios.

“What? You’re buying MORE Junk Bonds?!” “Regulation FD” could ultimately improve the depth and quality of analyst research, turning the focus back to more relevant, longer term outlooks. “Sell Side” Stock Research: The reasons why we no longer use it.

November market devastation not the result of Florida Follies….Tech sector disappointments and lowered prospects are most of it. The Good News: Two-thirds of the current bear market may now be history. Expect counter trend rally soon, but third and final “Bear” leg likely in Q1, 2001.

November was Tech nightmare but we think about two-thirds of decline is behind us.

Even with dry spells, the long term performance record of this screen has been excellent, outperforming the S&P 500 by 1195% since 1975.

Seven new groups and themes added to our Blue Book this month.

In a month with the S&P 500 down 8% and the NASDAQ down 23%, it is amazing that there weren’t net redemptions for the month.

The latest 10-week reading remains above historical selling extremes.

S&P 500 volatility so far in 2000 has been exceptionally high, only seven of the other 100 years have been more volatile. The current volatility in the NASDAQ is unprecedented over the 30 year life of this index.