Latest Research

The dramatic performance swings of Security Companies, Energy Technology, and look at a new “fad group,”  Nanotechnology.

Scoring well across Value, Growth, and Relative Strength parameters. Momentum in group strong (look at relative strength!) but could be additional “cyclical” up leg as economy strengthens.

Quantitative strengths include VLT Momentum, Relative Strength and Judgmental. Group should benefit in first stages of rebounding economy, as employers might be reluctant to hire new full-time employees.

There certainly was not much evidence of a “January effect” this year. Most of the market indices were down but the S&P Small Cap Index was up slightly.

Leuthold’s New Year Predictions for 2002 and a review of last year’s predictions.

Looking Back: The best thing about 2001 is that it is over. Looking Forward: The seasons are with us as January is statistically the strongest month of the year.

Tactical move that has worked moderately well so far.

For the third straight year, the Russell outperforms.

There has now been net inflow in each of the last three months, but this doesn't mean that investor confidence has recovered.

This year’s equity offerings volume, as measured by common shares in IPO and secondary financings, finished the year well below the levels of 2000.

S&P Tech remained flat in December, but P/E ratios continue to climb as poor earnings are reported.

Earnings are cyclical and the economic cycle causes distortions.  A focus on which earnings to use and how to evaluate the differences.

While the markets are still very volatile, the vast majority of our volatility charts show 2001 levels down somewhat from 2000.

Continuing to evaluate Leuthold Index methodology.

Insider block measures now moving down toward bullish territory…..but not there yet.

Some groups tend to move in and out of favor in a hurry. We review the dramatic performance swings of our recently created Security Companies and BioDefense groups along with Energy Technology.

Group leaders & laggards in 2001.

GS Scores improved to Attractive on VLT buy signals in both price and relative strength.

Bond Market weakness is adjustment to end of Fed easing cycle.

Annual examination of our work from the previous year.…closely reviewing what we called right and wrong.