Latest Research

New feature focusing on Steve’s opinions that lie out of consensus view.

Economy and inflation predictions on track so far in Q1, but stock market slowed by some confidence-shaking speed bumps.

As demonstrated by the fact that 2002 YTD level is much better than 2001, Main Street investors’ confidence in the stock market has made a major comeback.

Tech still down big from all time highs, but still not cheap. Upside driver will have to be new earnings momentum developing.

A look at market performance over five different rising interest rate periods. Results are somewhat surprising.

NASDAQ short interest ratio up in March.

Remains in normal historical range.

With respect to the S&P 500, today’s volatility is the lowest in five years.

Eliminating six groups and adding four to our Equity Strategies product next month. Components and methodologies explained.

Upgraded to Attractive with double-digit increase in quantitative GS Score. Scoring strong in Value, Judgmental, and VLT Momentum categories.

For over a year, The Leuthold Group has been recommending investors focus on small/mid cap stocks. The best performing market comparators so far in 2002 have been S&P Small Caps and S&P Mid Caps.

Expect rally from current oversold conditions, but overall, we think secular Bull Market in Bonds is topping out.

An explanation of VLT Momentum (The Coppock Curve); what it is and how we use it.

Last month in this section we discussed the DALBAR study finding that mutual fund investors radically underperform. Their conclusions seemed reasonable, but the degree of underperformance was difficult to believe. We begin to examine their methodology this month.

Market begins to shake off “Enronitis” and as economic positives continue, the next rally could come quickly. And yes, it was a recession.

January and February’s cash flows have picked up from the very low levels seen throughout 2001, but this is not necessarily a sign that Main Street investors have fallen in love with the stock market again.

S&P Tech clobbered in February, but median PE ratio still rising for 6th straight month as almost half of our tech index has no earnings.

While the markets are still very volatile, the vast majority of our volatility charts show 2001 levels down somewhat from 2000.

Continuing to evaluate Leuthold Index methodology.

Remains in normal historical range.