Of Special Interest ...examining a significantly timely topic

There have been some big headline earnings disappointments, but the overall earnings trend remains pretty solid for now. Based on our analysis of up earnings reports/down earnings reports, things look good. The current ratio is still indicative of a strong economy.

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With perfect hindsight, one could have produced a gain of almost 70% by investing in 1995’s 25 biggest institutional stock winners.

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Self-examination can be good for the soul, so each January time is taken to look back over the preceding year, critically reviewing the significant studies, portfolio shifts, and recommendations appearing in our publications. We include both the good...and the bad.

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Here at The Leuthold Group we are now laying some preliminary plans to “Play the Bounce”, probably initiating positions sometime after mid-December. We are particularly intrigued by some of the busted technology stocks.

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Earnings Momentum still relatively strong, but some fade is evident. More of a fade is expected as later quarterly reports come in.

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Recent market discussion has centered around comparisons of today’s stock market with 1987. In order to summarize the comparisons, we have put together a table containing over 30 factors that have stock market significance.

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Testing of this indicator has offered some strong evidence that potential returns from today's level could be quite minimal.

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This month we are activating the “Net Net Working Capital” (NNWC) screen as an active part of the Equity Portfolio. NNWC is a modified working capital analysis which, in some cases, is useful in making preliminary, liquidity based company valuations.

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Testing indicates that there is really only minimal stock market analytical value to the concept of “real” dividend yields. It is of very limited use in identifying overvalued markets on a short term basis. Longer term, we found no stock market analytical value here.

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At this point, we do not see any clear signs that historical earnings consistency leads to outperformance relative to inconsistent earnings companies.

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The tidal wave of equity mutual fund cash flows continues to roll in. “Cash” percentage in growth oriented equity funds hit a 12-year low. New equity supply may now about match mutual fund cash inflows. Cart or horse? Do the mutual fund cash flows drive the market or does the market drive them?

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The Leuthold Group’s new direction in stock sector selection. A disciplined, unemotional, quantitative approach to today’s “real world” stock market group selection.

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Our studies suggest we still have some further regression before returning to median returns. Looking out to a 3-5 year horizon, we expect equity returns to lag historical averages as returns regress further toward normal long term (10 year) performance.

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This X-Rays & EKG's section presents the best and worst performing conceptual sectors and quantitative themes over the first half of the 1990's.

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Our most significant call was the mid-year major move into "Gilt Edged Growth" stocks...the worst may have been an early 1994 move into REITs (we still like them).

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Combination of seasonal trend and recent sharp drop in gold shares too tempting to pass up.

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Consumer confidence is high, the economy is solid. We do not think Christmas 1994 is yet reflected in many retailing stocks. Look at this like a retailing “bounce" opportunity.

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Pure water offers growth opportunities across the global economic spectrum.

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Growth stocks have been out of favor over the past 3-4 year, but look poised to regain leadership over the next 6-12 months.

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U.S. corporations must pay almost 300 basis points more to borrow in U.S. dollars than in Swiss francs. Why is there such a difference?

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