Of Special Interest ...examining a significantly timely topic

From Alabama to Wyoming, our Senators and House members are rated for fiscal responsibility based on a study by The Concord Coalition. See how yours rank.

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Another of our many new sectors over the last two years: "Buy California?" Not yet part of the Leuthold Equity Portfolio, but looks interesting.

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Observations and opinions on REITs as well as highlights from a recent institutional investor REIT forum.

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REITs being added to Conventional and Unconventional Portfolios. Expect total returns here to be in excess of 10% annually. REITs are also expected to act as a defensive holding in a down market.

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Readers should not confuse these forecasts with the more traditional economic and market predictions that appeared in the January issue. However, in the past, these "Fearless Forecasts" have, at times, been closer to the mark than the conventional predictions.

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Self-examination can be good for the soul, so each January time is taken to look back over the preceding year, critically reviewing the significant studies, portfolio shifts and recommendations appearing in our publication. We include both the good…and the bad.

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Based on the analysis herein, combined with the lack of earnings progress since 1988, we conclude that future earnings growth projections in our earnings model may be too conservative.

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Time for an attitude adjustment? We have seen some fat returns on long fixed income securities since rates peaked in 1981. What can we expect from bonds in the future? To help answer this question we look at three sample bonds using a 5 and 10 year risk/reward framework.

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In September, a poll was taken at the FIM East Conference luncheon where Steve was speaking. This is the first poll The Leuthold Group has taken since June.

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The Leuthold Group has unveiled a new sector strategy to be employed this month in the Model Equity Portfolio. This is a quantitative approach to the stock selection process involving both fundamental and technical factors.

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Presented herein is an update of the debt monetization studies presented two months ago. Data has now been released for the first quarter of 1993, and there is virtually no change. Nevertheless, judging by client response, this will be of interest to our readers.

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Overall earnings momentum was very good, with the best comparisons once again in the large cap sector. The largest 50 companies produced an average +13.2% year over year median gain, the best performance recorded since our earnings monitoring began in 1991.

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Does historical data suggest that a big performance decade is followed by a poor relative performance decade? Or, does a big performance decade beget an extended period of above average performance?

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The histograms in the following pages are taken from the January 1993 edition on Benchmarks.

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Each January, clients call to inquire about last year's performance of the S&P 500 with each component stock given equal weight.

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During November, a California client brought up an interesting point relating to P/E valuations and to our historical studies of stock market P/E ratios. “How would today's typical P/E compare with the typical P/E of the past?”

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An abbreviated 1992 edition of The Leuthold Group’s study of “Political Fiscal Responsibility”, focusing on what appear to be Congress' best and worst.

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The Major Trend Index is really the backbone of our stock market analysis at The Leuthold Group. Prompted by a number of client questions in recent months, Andy Engel has broken apart the Major Trend Index and analyzed each of the five broad categories separately.

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Today, T-bills are yielding 3.20% and high quality commercial paper is yielding 3.40%. It may be useful to examine these rates in a historical perspective. Some may think these are just about the lowest short term rates in U.S. history. Well, not quite.

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In May, polls were taken among our clients in New York and at the Market Technicians Association’s Annual Seminar in Naples, Florida. The results were quite different.

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