Of Special Interest ...examining a significantly timely topic
Past Performance in Perspective
During April, the histogram featured in this section was used in presentations to the Cleveland and Denver analyst societies. It appears to have surprised some professionals, especially those who entered the investment profession during the 1980’s.
S&P 500 P/E Ratios: The Lessons Of History
This study focuses on the S&P 500 and its P/E ratio.
Earnings Momentum Update
The vast majority of 1991 fourth quarter earnings reports have been released.
Stock Market Valuations And Treasury Bill Yields
The Leuthold Group currently incorporates 38 stock market valuation measures in its Major Trend Index (see Appendix). Currently 31 of these are at least to some degree negative.
Dreams And Nightmares
Much of the January Green Book is devoted to tradition, so too is this section. We resumed this tradition two years ago and have found it to be quite interesting. We now annually conduct this exercise each January, examining the previous year's leading and lagging stock market groups.
A Look In The Rearview Mirror
Self examination can be good for the soul, so each year time is taken to look back over the preceding year or so, critically reviewing the significant studies, portfolio shifts and recommendations appearing in this publication. Including the good...and the bad.
Earnings Momentum: Better Than You Think
On an aggregate basis, third and fourth quarter reported earnings will be below even what pessimistic prognosticators are projecting. However, looking at earnings momentum on the basis of individual companies presents a very different picture.
Earnings Momentum: Better Than You Might Think
We normally present our Earnings Momentum study in the Appendix on a monthly basis. Because of the current impressive results of this work and the implications for the economy and the stock market, we have decided to emphasize the study by highlighting it in the “X- rays” section this month.
Earnings Momentum: From A 3000 Stock Universe
It is likely that third quarter and possibly fourth quarter earnings will be disappointing, although year over year comparisons may not look so bad.
How High Is High?/How Low Is Low?
An update of The Leuthold Group’s Intrinsic Value Benchmarks provides a way of estimating upside and downside potential for the DJIA and S&P 500. How much higher might the stock market go in the next year…..and what is the bear market downside risk?
Stock Market Volatility in Historical Perspective
Has 1991 been an unusually high volatility year? Thanks to statistics compiled by Tony Tabell (Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc.), we are able to make volatility comparisons back to 1897.
Stock Group Performance in Perspective...A Different Look
By our tabulations, 57% of the industry groups are still below their 1987 peaks even though the S&P 500 is 16% above its 1987 peak. Which industry groups are leading and which are lagging?
Real Interest Rates: “It Ain’t Necessarily So”
The concept of a “real” rate of interest is widely held, but it does not appear to be a natural law. It is not a truism that has prevailed forever. Like many investment concepts and theories, sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t.
Polling the Pros
Recognizing the obvious client interest in the market views of other professionals, we are initiating “Polling the Pros”. Whenever we have a significant number of investment professionals gathered together, we will ask their stock market opinion via a ballot. So now when you ask us what Leuthold clients think of the market we will no longer have to wing it.
How High Can This Market Go?
Some prognosticators have pretty fair records in predicting the direction of the market, but it is very difficult to pinpoint the strength of major advances and declines. Rather than just pull a number out of a hat, the best approach to quantifying how far this market can go is to look at The Leuthold Group’s Benchmarks.
Playing the Bounce Update
The bounce stocks currently are outperforming the market by a big margin. In the early days of February, they have continued to soar.
A Look In The Rearview Mirror
Self examination can be good for the soul, so each year time is taken to look back over the preceding year or so, critically reviewing the significant studies, portfolio shifts and recommendations appearing in this publication. Including the good....and the bad.
Playing the Bounce
An updated list of trading stocks to buy in November-December and sell in January or February. This strategy is not appropriate for most institutions. However, we think it can make sense for your personal accounts.....Happy Bouncing and Happy Holidays To All Of You!
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