Of Special Interest ...examining a significantly timely topic
The Royal Blues…Revision And Comment On Current 99 Institutional Favorites
The Royal Blues studies currently identify the 99 U.S. institutional favorites…those equities with the largest dollar value and broadest institutional ownership.
welling@weeden
Get a glimpse of Weeden's new research service, as Kate Welling starts an interview with Michael Price.
Making The Case For Mid Caps
For managers who are mandated to stay fully invested, Mid Caps make pretty good sense as a replacement for extremely overvalued Nifty Fifty stocks.
VLT Momentum Buy Signals...Good News For Small Cap Fans
Maybe we are too cautious about calling a turn in relative small cap performance. VLT work on Russell 2000 and Value Line now both giving buy signals.
Understanding MZM…It May Not Represent What You Think It Does
Much of the movement in MZM levels is not directly related to Fed policy. Stock market performance may be the primary driver, as investors and institutions move assets between the stock market and cash market.
The Dichotomy Continues...Big Cap Versus Small Cap
Q1 1999 following the same market script of 1995-1998, with big cap stocks, especially Nifty Fifty types, dominating smaller companies in terms of market performance.
Dissecting the Internet Play
Internet classification too broad and confusing. Tracking performance of the Internet necessitates breakout into three, distinct sectors: Technology…Internet Services, Consumer…E-Tail and Technology…Inter/Networking.
Earnings Data Sending Conflicting Signals
Up/Down earnings ratio continues to point toward slowing momentum. Last month's ratio (data for complete third quarter) was lowest reading since the beginning of the current economic expansion.
A Look In The Rearview Mirror
Self-examination can be good for the soul if not the ego, so each January, time is taken to look back over the preceding year, critically reviewing the significant studies, portfolio shifts, and recommendations appearing in our publications. We include both the good...and the bad.
SEC Cracking Down on Managed Earnings Abuses
On September 28, SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt announced a new “get tough” policy toward restructuring charges, write-offs and other managed earnings abuses. What follows are rather extensive extracts from Levitt’s speech.
Playing the Bounce
Leuthold October 15th Bounce list performance was extraordinary!
P/E Ratios and Low Inflation
Using history as a guide, today’s low inflation environment is no justification for the current P/E.
Bargain Basement Investing...Asia and Emerging Markets
Most investors, including professionals, find it emotionally difficult to act independently and contrarian. It is emotionally comforting to be in tune with the consensus....after all, going with the consensus won’t get you fired.
Growth...Recession Resistant - The Time Is Right
A fresh Recession Resistant screen uncovered 68 stocks - big cap companies whose earnings have held up well during the past three recessions.
Big Cap Dominance Warping Performance Measures
Institutions' preference for liquid big caps have made it very difficult for most portfolio managers to keep up with the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ year to date.
Valuations in Low Inflation Environments
Low inflation environments versus “new era” valuations. Examining low inflation environments only, with our “Upside/Downside” factors, there is still 34%+ downside to median valuation levels (1957 to date).
P/E Ratios and Low Inflation...Revisited
Some clients suggested that our use of normalized earnings distorted last month’s study of P/E ratios in low inflation environments. Using a three year centered average of earnings produces results quite similar to last month’s study.
P/E Ratios and Low Inflation
Low Inflation and the justification of expanded P/E ratios. Low inflation does justify expanded P/E ratios...However, how much of an expansion is warranted?
Trying To Rationalize Today’s Stock Market Valuations
Bullish conclusions using today’s low inflation levels and today’s “low” bond yields are derived from very short-term, historical time horizons. Longer term studies do not support these conclusions.
A Look In The Rearview Mirror
What we did well and not so well...