Of Special Interest ...examining a significantly timely topic
Playing The Bounce 2004-2005
Presenting our “Playing The Bounce” strategy, along with all the qualifying stocks. Many are Tech stocks. We may “Play The Bounce” within the asset allocation portfolios in coming weeks as market conditions present themselves.
Large Cap Growth Versus Large Cap Value
Large Cap Growth stocks are relatively cheap compared to Large Cap Value stocks. The next major trend should be in Large Cap Growth.
Travels With Leuthold
In years past, this publication has included some of my more interesting and unusual travel experiences. So, for your August beach reading, here is yet another Travels With Leuthold.
New Leuthold Ten Factor Small Cap Leadership Model
A matrix of factors to assess the relative attractiveness of Small Caps vs. Large Caps.
U.S. Market Overvalued, Not Undervalued, Relative To NIPA Profits
Contrary to some strategists’ studies the U.S. stock market is not cheap relative to NIPA (National Income and Product Accounts) corporate profits. In fact, like the majority of Leuthold studies, this metric indicates the market is overvalued.
Short Term Interest Rate Considerations
What might the Fed view as a neutral position? Assessing historical yardsticks for guidance.
Commodity Diffusion Index
Falling dollar in recent years has helped drive commodity prices higher. See “Of Special Interest” for a discussion of our Euro Adjusted Commodity Diffusion Index. It is not as inflationary as the Traditional Commodity Diffusion Index, which is now at levels not seen since the late 1970s.
Is The NASDAQ Recovery Over?
NASDAQ was only index to decline in February. Some are wondering if the rally is over for the NASDAQ. This month’s “Of Special Interest” looks at past NASDAQ recoveries.
Reading The Tea Leaves The Stock Market One Year Ago...vs. Today
A comparison of today’s market conditions compared to one year ago. We look at valuations, sentiment, group leadership and Major Trend categories.
A Look In The Rearview Mirror
This month’s “Of Special Interest” presents a critical review of what we thought was the best of The Leuthold Group’s work in 2003 and what was the worst.
The 2004 Inflation Front
Inflation may prove to be a big surprise in 2004. This month’s “Of Special Interest” highlights several of the monitors we are watching regarding inflation.
Playing The Bounce 2003-2004
This month’s “Of Special Interest” is an update of our annual “Playing The Bounce” exercise, in which we try to uncover stocks poised for a rebound after the tax selling abates.
Insider Selling: Not As Bad As Media Depicting
Recent selling by corporate Insiders is not as bad as you are being told!
Dissecting The VIX Index
VIX Index not effective as a sell signal, but very good on buy side. Ignore talk of current low VIX reading foreshadowing a market decline.
The Blind Stampede Into Bond Funds
Investor preference toward bond funds, chasing performance, may be left behind once again. Bonds not expected to generate very good returns from current levels based on historical analysis of returns.
Inflationary Impact Of The Falling Dollar
Much of the upward price movement in commodity prices, as measured in U.S. dollars, is the result of the weak dollar. A weaker dollar has an inflationary impact on U.S. prices.
Deflation: Not Likely, But, “What If?”
We think deflation fears are overblown, but, it isn’t necessarily bad for stock performance.
Historical Swings In S&P 500 Sector Weights
A look at favoritism shifts in broad economic sectors, 1977 to date. Large weights prone to correction.
Cutting The Drug Business Five Ways
We’ve carved out subsets from Wall Street’s oversimplified classification of drug stocks.
New Data Series: Leuthold 3000 Stock Universe Valuations—Growth Vs. Value
The initial framework presented with a snapshot of the current relationships.
Subscribe to Advisor Newsletter