Of Special Interest ...examining a significantly timely topic
Initiating Coverage Of Nuclear Power Thematic Group
“Of Special Interest” highlights an upcoming study which will introduce our new Nuclear Power thematic group. The study will present both Domestic and Global alternatives for playing this theme.
A Look In The Rearview Mirror
2007’s “Good, Bad, and Ugly” of The Leuthold Group research; Leuthold Group Selection (GS) Scores performance review; Weighted index vs. Un-Weighted index performance; and 2007’s “Dreams & Nightmares” portfolios.
A Discount Shopping Guide To Banks And Homebuilders
With a heavily promotional holiday shopping season underway, we feel compelled to join the fray by looking at the big markdowns in U.S. homebuilding and bank stocks.
The Evaporation Of Deal Flow
Golden Age Ends For Cash Buyouts, But Does A Silver Age Loom?
Outside The BLS, Inflation Is Alive And Well
This month’s “Of Special Interest” focuses on the inflation pressures into today’s marketplace.
Housing: Still Too Early To Invest (Or To Build)
It’s still too early, but at some point in the next 6 to 18 months, going long the homebuilders will probably become the single most contrarian—and potentially highly profitable—thing to do. But before that happens, we expect to see more blood in the streets.
Leuthold Global Groups: Forgetting About Borders
This month’s “Of Special Interest” focuses on our new global equities investment research product which was derived from our quantitative Group Selection (GS) Score framework for assessing domestic equity industry groups.
Corporate Share Repurchases Now At Record Levels...Five Reasons Why They Are Expected To Slow
Share repurchases have been a major driver in the extension of the bull market, but this month’s “Of Special Interest” outlines several factors which are likely to contribute to a deceleration in corporate repurchase activity over the next several quarters.
Interest Rates And Stock Valuations: A Broken Linkage?
A look at the relationship between bond and stock yields as justification for today’s expectations of a continued bull market and for the current LBO craze. No evidence that Fed-type valuation models help forecast future market returns.
Focus On Profit Margins
While the current economic expansion has been below average in terms of growth, the profit expansion over this time frame has been explosive.
Are Current Inventory Levels Cause For Concern?
This month’s “Of Special Interest” examines the issue of rising inventory levels. Aggregate inventory levels for U.S. manufacturers have risen to within 1% of previous highs recorded in early 2001. If sales momentum continues to lose steam, expect inventory correction to take hold later this year.
CAPEX Is Slowing: Which industries still stand to benefit—and which ones are in trouble?
We dig deeper into the capital spending data to determine which industries still could benefit from recent CAPEX trends and which ones are likely to get hurt.
2006 Dreams And Nightmares...A Look Back At What Might Have Been
A look back at the performance one would have achieved by investing in the year’s best groups and the pain felt from investing in the worst performing groups in 2006. We also examine the strategy of buying a prior year’s winners and losers in anticipation of better performance the following year.
Why It Has Been Tough To Beat The S&P 500 In 2006
This month’s “Of Special Interest” study presents a handful of factors that explain why life for active managers has been much more difficult in 2006.
Iraq Withdrawal? “No-Win” Military Conflicts’ Impact On the Stock Market
Is market rallying in anticipation of conflict resolution in Iraq? Bush will be under increasing pressure to resolve things before the 2008 Presidential election. We look at the Korean conflict and Vietnam war for clues about how this possible resolution in Iraq may play out in stock market.
2006 Could Be A Good “Playing The Bounce” Year
“Playing the Bounce” screening strategy details and 2006 initial “bounce” stock qualifiers.
The Demise Of The Consumer
“Of Special Interest” section examines the likely demise of consumer spending power. Taking a lead from the GS Scores and other economic data, we believe that a significant underweight in areas that are particularly sensitive to consumer spending is a prudent strategy for now.
S&P 500 Sector Profit Margins Update
Review of profit margins by broad sector show very little contraction since we last published this work a year ago. Margins have expanded in Energy, Materials, and Health Care sectors, while there has been contraction in Consumer Staples and Information Technology.
What Does Market Sentiment Look Like?
The month’s “Of Special Interest” examines Attitudinal portion of the Major Trend to assess whether the market hit an important bottom during May to June market decline.
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