Of Special Interest ...examining a significantly timely topic
The Math Doesn’t Work For Long-Term Treasuries
The recent upside breakout in the U.S. 10-year yield was successful, and it appears interest rates will remain in the new higher range for now. But what are the short-term implications of higher U.S. Treasury rates on asset allocation decisions?
The Role Of Commodities In A Multi-Asset Class Portfolio
The primary benefits are their inflation and U.S. dollar hedging capabilities.
The Outlook For Commodity Stocks
Energy looks cheaper and appears much more washed out from a sentiment perspective. Contrarians looking for commodity exposure should favor this sector over Materials.
Value Vs. Momentum Performance
We see a strong and clear Poor-Value/Strong-Momentum pattern emerging, which could indicate a looming market top. While QE3 could disrupt it, the pattern looks unmistakable.
Fund Flows Not Quite As They Appear
Despite flows out of U.S. focus equity mutual funds, investors remain heavily invested there; while dollars flood into bond funds, they’re also flowing into other varieties of equity funds.
Presidential Elections And Financial Assets
Does The Market Have A Party Preference In The Presidential Election? Results are a wash, so investors might rethink their assumptions about party affiliation and market performance.
A Look At Thematic And Sector Valuations
Health Care and Consumer Staples valuations don’t look as dangerous as widely assumed. Utilities look expensive; conversely, the big corrections in the Industrials and Materials sectors have yet to create truly compelling valuations. The best sector for contrarians is Energy.
A Closer Look At Growth And Value Return Differences
Traditional Fama/French analysis shows an exceptionally large 4% per annum return edge favoring Value. Based on Russell 1000 Growth and Value Indexes, however, the edge in favor of Value has been a fraction of that. Current year’s Growth outperformance is also dissected to determine the likelihood this leadership will persist.
The Changing Role of Gold In An Investment Portfolio
As global capital markets are yet again dominated by extreme macro-economic uncertainty, gold appears to be behaving as a hedge against extreme equity market movements, a store of value and an alternative to fiat currencies.
Stock/Bond Correlation Upside Down—Stocks And Interest Rates Can Rise In Tandem
An examination of this historical relationship turns up some interesting findings that challenge the traditional disposition.
Apple: Just How High Can It Go?
A discussion on mounting Apple insanity and an old study revisited focusing on long term corporate survivorship— “Is Apple Forever?”
Small Cap Stocks: Hard To Make The Numbers Work…
Leuthold’s Doug Ramsey takes an in depth look at historical Small and Large Cap cycles and offers insight as to where we stand now and what can be expected going forward.
Predictions for 2012…
From the stock market to politics to football, Doug Ramsey offers up ten predictions and thoughts for the New Year…. Even though we’ve already had a one month “peek” at 2012.
Risk Premium for Stocks Making a Comeback…
Andy Engel revisits our Stock/Bond Performance Differential study which examines rolling stock/bond spreads over various time periods and subsequent asset class returns. It appears that trends are finally reverting slowly toward the norm.
Profit Margins: As Good As It Gets
Current record high corporate Profit Margins examined in this month’s “Of Special Interest.” Topics include the sustainability of the trend, commodities as profit trackers, margins as a potential forecasting tool and discussion on profits by sector and market cap.
Demise Of Corporate Tax Revenues? A Look At Trends Of Corporate Tax Vs. Individual
This month’s “Of Special Interest” examines Federal tax revenues from corporations versus individuals. Despite strong revenue and earnings growth, corporations paid fewer taxes this year; all of the government’s revenue increase came from individuals.
Bear Market Facts—A Refresher
This month’s “Of Special Interest” examines the bear market facts. Doug Ramsey doesn’t expect the current bear market to reach historical bear market medians in terms of decline or duration. Non-economic bear markets are usually much shorter than recession-induced bears.
Sector Level Profit Margins: Q2 Update
An examination of both near term and longer term historical profit margins broken out by sectors is presented in this month’s “Of Special Interest” section.
Market Interrelationships: “Unlearning” What We Thought We Knew
Doug Ramsey examines several once very reliable relationships between stocks, bonds, inflation, and commodities.
Sector Valuation Review: A Top-Down Look At Risks And Opportunities
“Of Special Interest” takes a look at sector valuations through the lens of our GS Scores.
Subscribe to Advisor Newsletter