Of Special Interest ...examining a significantly timely topic
Undervalued & Unloved
Value investing, and this U&U quant screen discipline in particular, has proven to be a superior investment strategy over the long term. It is not superior to growth stocks nor the broad market every year, but it has lower downside risk in bad markets and solid strength in up markets.
Energy Sector: Why We Are Growing Increasingly Cautious
Select Industries Portfolio has only miniscule exposure to Energy sector (0.6% of equity assets). This month’s “Of Special Interes”t presents the rationale for underweighting Energy stocks.
Has The Yield Curve Lost Its Luster?
The traditional definition versus the new definition of an inversion...How real GDP has responded historically to past yield curve inversions….Effect of inversions on Financial stocks.
Cyclical Stock Dominance — How Long Can It Persist?
An in-depth examination of performance relative to Growth stocks; what has been typical in terms of leadership duration; and how the economy and inflation may affect the current trend.
Digging Into Consumer Groups
An analysis of underlying factors that may be hindering the consumer groups, both “discretionary” and “staples,” from making a showing in our Attractive rankings.
A Look In The Rearview Mirror...The Best And Worst Of Our Research In 2005
A look at the things we did well in the past year, the areas where we could improve, and those things that were downright wrong.
Introducing Three New Group Ideas For 2006
“Video Gaming Technology” and “Affluent Consumer”; along with a new Jim Floyd quantitative screen: “Deep Value.”
Turning Japanese? A Look At The Rally In Japan Shares And How To Play The Turnaround
A look at the rally in Japan shares, and how to potentially play a turnaround.
Playing The Bounce 2005-2006
It’s Bounce season again, and Jim Floyd and Patrick Magnusson present the preliminary list of potential stocks that may rebound after being beaten down in 2005. Consumer Discretionary stocks are most plentiful on the list.
Is Oil Overvalued Relative To Industrial Metals?
In comparison to crude oil, industrial metals are beginning to look like a real bargain.
Revisiting Sector Profit Margins: Data Now Expanded Back The 1950s
On an aggregate basis, we see little room for further margin improvement, but there are select areas we believe may yet be poised for additional (slight/moderate) expansion.
Advance/Decline Line & Price Line Divergences Offer Guidance
Using Breadth Dynamics to assess strength of small cap stocks versus large cap stocks within various broad market sectors: Health Care, Materials, Consumer Discretionary, and Energy.
Examining the Recent S&P/MSCI Global Industry Classification System (GICS) Changes
Standard & Poor’s/MSCI did their annual review of the GICs groups and made some changes...in a few cases adopting groups we had already established at The Leuthold Group and had been tracking for several years. This month’s “Of Special Interest” discusses the changes and presents our take on the new groups.
Constructing A History Of The "Estimating The Downside" Calculation
Historical tracking of our multi-factor valuation model.
Narrowing Of Breadth Among Small Caps
Leuthold Group specialized Advance/Decline Lines indicate fading breadth among Small Caps.
Profit Margins At The Sector Level
An expanded discussion of profit margins broken out by broad sectors. Expect some expansion still in Materials and Energy, as well as possibly Tech. Contraction anticipated in Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Telecom.
Looking For Some Defense?
A look at which equity groups have historically held up best during market declines. We revived our “Defensive Equity Group” theme, with individual stocks selected from each of these individual defensive groups.
A Look In The Rearview Mirror...The Best And Worst Of Our Research In 2004
This annual exercise is a critical examination of our research effort for the year...presenting both the things we did well and also those things we didn’t do so well.
Offshoring The Next Bubble?
Main Street’s rush into international stock funds could be foreshadowing tougher times ahead for foreign markets.
Keep In Front Of The Economic Curve
Stock market is a leading economic indicator, and typically turns down before the economy turns down. On average, 40% of the stock market decline occurs before the recession begins.
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