Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

While the “Sell in May” market phenomenon has become part of Wall Street lore, the sector implications of this seasonal pattern are less well-known.

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The bulls remain in command as evidenced by the fact that the broad market averages continue their ascent toward new cyclical highs (or in some cases like the DJIA and Russell 2000—new all-time highs).

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We view traditional open-end funds as the primary indicator of individual investor sentiment, and consider ETF demand primarily a function of professional demand. With that said, the positive $3.5 billion going into open-end U.S. stock funds in April tells us that individual investors remain cautious.

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Initial results for Q1 earnings look disturbing. Analyst estimates of 2007 year end earnings for stocks have been declining across all market cap tiers, with biggest declines in the Energy sector.

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An In Focus Special Research Study sent in late April provides a detailed look at the growth of the ETF industry and endeavors to organize the ETF universe into meaningful categories.

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Clients who use our equity group work are well aware of the successful history of picking groups through the quantitative Group Selection Scores (GS Scores).

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Cash acquisitions shrinking U.S. equity share base.

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The numbers tell us that investors have clearly begun to diversify into other asset classes and that the U.S. stock market is no longer the only game in town.

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Steve discusses his opinion of market cycle sin this month’s “View From The North Country”. He is a believer in cycles, but not so sure about rhythmic cycles. Also, his thoughts on the importance of market history.

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The stock market spent much of March trying to climb out of the hole dug back on February 27th. But to date, the primary indexes are still below late-February’s cyclical highs.

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Quantitatively, we have found that option trading volumes provide good, contrarian information on investor sentiment toward market groups.

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We have modified our Small Cap and Mid Cap Growth versus Value methodology, improving the algorithm for distinguishing between growth and value to make the components more reflective of these sectors.

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Fresh LBO screen run in February 2007.

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Even though it is entering its sixth year, the Industrial Metals play is not over. It seems to be entering its third and last act, an act that could run for at least another 18 months.

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The $8.1 billion going into open-end U.S. stock funds is a good sign that individual investors had been warming up to the U.S. stock market recently, although recent stock market volatility could change all that.

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Although the markets continued to trend higher for much of the month, the steep losses on February 27th reminded us all again what a good dose of market volatility felt like. Feel better now?

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Market breadth moved down in tandem with stock market indices, but is not showing any divergences. All advance/decline lines were making new highs just before the downturn, and bull markets do not end with advance/decline data posting new highs.

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The $4.1 billion going into open-end U.S. stock funds is clearly indicating that Main Street investors are entering 2007 with a cautious outlook for the U.S. stock market.

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A look at the GS Scores for the broad Energy sector in light of the recent decline in crude oil prices. Today, only one of the Energy related groups is rated Attractive, while 3 are Neutral and 3 Unattractive.

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Relatively low interest rates combined with strong earnings growth and a build up of corporate cash has created a perfect environment for LBOs. Jim Floyd created a quantitative screen back in February 2006 that attempts to uncover the most attractive LBO stocks.

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