Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
Point And Counterpoint: Big Oil
Client disputes Leuthold’s call for big oil to invest in alternative energy business. Read Steve’s in-depth rebuttal.
How Low Will The Fed Go? Bond Market May Be Offering Some Clues
In trying to assess how far the Fed may ultimately be forced to cut rates, the price action in short term Treasuries and historical yield relationships may offer some clues.
November Market Action
The venerable Wall Of Worry finally got to the stock market during November, with the major indexes losing their grip virtually right out of the gates.
Is Mild Stagflation In The Cards?...How To Play It
It is very possible that the early part of 2008 will see a brief period of higher inflation combined with slowing real growth in the U.S. economy.
Time To Revisit "Why We Normalize Earnings"
Earnings are very cyclical by nature, the ebb and flow can cause P/E ratios to move in erratic, less meaningful ways.
Bulls May Have Christmas...
Bulls may indeed have Christmas, but fundamentals for bearish case in 2008 are extensive.
VLT Momentum On U.S. Currency...Applications (And Implications) For The Weak Dollar
Quite simply, VLT (which stands for Very Long Term) is a momentum oscillator which works best as a buy signal. Some market technicians have also suggested that VLT Momentum back-tests well as a currency indicator.
Playing The Bounce 2007 Update
May “Play The Bounce” if stocks sell off in December.
Long Term Bullish Case: Dollar Versus The Euro
Thanks to weak dollar, foreigners may be buying up Florida vacation homes. The U.S. is now on sale! Making the long term bullish case for a dollar rally against the euro.
Mutual Fund Flow…..Net Outflow From U.S. Equity Funds At Record Level
Funds offering exposure to non-U.S. equity asset classes have been seeing a fair amount of net inflow this year, while U.S. equity funds have been mostly ignored.
Mutual Fund Flow…..U.S. Equity Funds See Net Outflow Of $45 Billion Over Last Six Months
U.S. focus equity mutual funds outflow now within striking distance of the all-time record outflow of $25 billion for all of 2002.
The Growing Import Of U.S. Companies' Foreign Income
Mega Cap stocks (largest 50) derived 47% of income from foreign sources in 2006, up from 37% in 2000. Small/Micro cap stocks received just 15%-20% of income from foreign sources in 2006.
View From The North Country
Steve's commentary on the stock market's Wall of Worry, the oil patch and mining company squeeze, the abusurdity of corn to ethanol and the world's most valuable companies.
Bad Breadth Is A Global Concern
Bad breadth is a global concern. It may come as a surprise that foreign breadth is actually weaker than U.S. readings.
October Market Action
October marked new all-time highs for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials, while mid and small cap indexes like the Russell 2000, S&P 600 and S&P Mid Cap indexes, tested, but failed to take out their July-2007 highs.
Update On Leuthold's Global Groups
Leuthold’s equity portfolios—and especially our global portfolio—have capitalized on the past few months’ surge in commodities and other basic industries.
Cautious On Small Caps
Small Cap outlook continues to deteriorate. Despite recent underperformance, valuation premium is not shrinking.
Homebuilders.....Watching The “Window”
Not all gloom and doom this month...Homebuilders approaching window where past busted bubbles have bounced.
More Upside In Energy Stocks? Comparisons To 1974-1980 Bull Market Say Yes!
Relative valuations seem to support a continuation of energy stock strength.
Playing The Bounce 2007 Update—Caution Advised
We have had some concerns about playing the bounce this year. The stock market has absorbed (ignored) an abundance of bad news only to move higher, placing its faith in further Fed rate cuts.
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