Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
Economic Watch
Even though government statistics do not yet indicate a declining quarter of real GDP growth, we believe we are, in fact, in the grip of a recession.
Worth Noting... A Scary Top Ten List
Former Morgan Stanley strategist Byron Wein—now at Pequot Capital—publishes an annual list of potential market and economic “surprises” that has become a must read for institutional investors. Along the same lines, Wired magazine listed ten potential threats to what it calls the “Long Boom”. (Warning: This list might make The Leuthold Group look cheerful).
April Market Action
Relief finally came to Wall Street, not in the form of rebate checks or rate cuts, but from the strongest monthly returns since December 2003.
Major Trend Edges Up To Neutral In April
Major Trend Index improved to Neutral in early April and clinging there now. Are we seeing a delayed bear market rally? Examining what could come next.
March Market Action
The moderate index level price moves from February month-end to March month-end didn’t give any indication of the wild swings that occurred during the days in between.
All Was Not Lost In Stocks' Lost Decade
There’s much more to “the market” than the S&P 500.
Attitudinal Scores Among Highest Ever Recorded
Attitudinal category now very positive reflecting excess bearishness which typically comes near market bottoms.
Trying To Make Sense Of Earnings
Jim Floyd tries to makes sense of earnings in the current recessionary environment.
Current Stock Market Strategy
Market has so far performed pretty much as expected. Major Trend still Negative, but recent improvement is surprising. Bear market could be winding down.
Employment Data Continues To Deteriorate
At the risk of beating the “we’re in a recession” theme into the ground, we thought some analysis of the hot-off-the-presses March employment data would be worthwhile.
What A Difference The Currency Makes
A look at gold priced in dollars versus euros.
Profit Margins In Retreat....The Mathematics Of The Downside
Profit margins contracting. Assuming margins fall back to median historical levels, this implies a market decline of about 18%.
Not As Bad As January...
First, let us be thankful February 29th only occurs every four years. No, we haven’t done a historical performance analysis of past leap year extra days, but you can be certain somebody now has. Whatever, it was a bad end to February 2008.
Housing Fallout: Here’s A “Window” That Isn’t Broken Or Boarded Up...
Following patterns of past burst bubbles, Homebuilders seem poised to rally.
Bear Market Bottom This Summer?
What follows is my attempt to accentuate the positive; why the current bear market may be maturing and bottoming out sooner than you might think.
Insider Block Measures...Insider Selling Has Slowed Considerably
The factor measuring “Big Block Insider (Dollar)” transactions is now rated positive.
The Median P/E Valuation Benchmark
When stocks get back to median valuation levels, the odds are the stock market is at or close to its lows.
Client Question: VLT Buy Signals
“Given the broad declines in the stock market since October 2007, are there any particular industry groups which are beginning to look washed out enough to trigger a buy signal on the VLT work you employ in your Group Selection Scores?”
Worth Noting???
What follows are my personal observations and opinions. I am an anti-inflation fiscal conservative and I know some would add “curmudgeon” to this description.
February Market Action
The stock market continued to trend lower in February, with most broad indexes posting losses in the 2%-3% range by month end.
Subscribe to Advisor Newsletter