Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
Graham Model Revisited
Last month, using Ben Graham's model, we found the U.S. market to be undervalued for the first time in about 50 years. Unfortunately, the values have become even more compelling over the past five weeks.
Stocks Now Lag Bonds Since 1987 Bottom
The recent dismal stock market sell off, combined with flight to safety of U.S. Treasuries, has vaulted bond returns well above their historical norms while stock returns are well below their historical norms.
The U.S. Is Leading The Foreign Markets, But For How Long?
· The U.S. is leading the foreign markets, but for how long?
Positive Technical Trends
While there is plenty to worry about, some important technical trends still suggest that November 20, 2008 stands a good chance of being the final low of this bear market.
Is There Trouble In The Transports?
The new low in the Dow Jones Transports is a bullish portent, but only if the Dow Jones Industrials can hold above their November low.
Expanded Global Groups Coverage: Improving Our Ability To Recognize Global Group Trends
In January we expanded our Global Group universe from 67 to 92 groups. We believe these modifications enhance our ability to identify and track important leadership trends, and allow us to target portfolio exposures with greater accuracy.
January Market Action
Uncertainties are running high, and the stock market continues its struggle with a complex array of cross currents.
Playing The Bounce: No Carry Through In January After Strong December
A last look at a dismal year for Playing the Bounce.
Market Valuations: What Would Ben Graham Do?
With stock market “fundamentals” seemingly worse than at any time since World War II, we revisit the methods of the founding father of fundamental security analysis.
Playing The Bounce Update: Big Bounce At Year End After Plunge In October
“Playing The Bounce” strategy produced impressive gains in December, but results are still negative from October introduction.
December Market Action
2008 is over. We expect 2009 to be better since worst-case scenarios now seem less likely to play out.
The January Effect: Return To The Good Old Days?
“January Effect” has lost some of its luster in recent years, but historically it has produced very strong returns following big down years.
Tracking Cash...Who Has It, And Who Doesn’t
Still a mountain of cash available (MZM data), which could find its way into the stock market. Don’t confuse scarcity of buyers with scarcity of liquidity.
2008 Dreams And Nightmares...A Look Back At What Might Have Been
Even with perfect hindsight, an investor who purchased the 20 best performing groups in 2008 would have generated a 13% loss for the year. The 20 worst performing groups had an average loss of 62.5%.
Struck Down By The "Killer Wave"
Last January we noted the appearance of a rare and dangerous technical configuration in the Dow Jones Industrials Average. Some analysts have described this topping pattern as the “Killer Wave”, and did it ever live up to that nickname in 2008.
Think There's No Fuel For A Rally??.....Better Think Again
Using the ratio of MZM relative to total stock market capitalization as a gauge of market liquidity, shows there is a lot of fuel that can be put to work to drive a stock market rally.
November Market Action
Drama, if not direction, have become one of the stock market’s few certainties.
Playing The Bounce 2008—Market Due For A Bounce In December
It may not be a very good “Playing The Bounce” year. Not very many investors or portfolio managers have capital gains to offset.
Bear Market Epitaph?
While we can’t be certain that the final figures for the bear market have been booked, it’s worth putting the last 14 months of action into perspective.
Bull Markets: The Best Comes First
New bull markets are front end loaded, with the strongest performance usually coming within the first few months. Study also shows that Small Cap Growth stocks tend to outperform their Large Cap and Value counterparts.
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